LULU Lululemon Athletica · $116.33 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 Terminal终端 ↗

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Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Disc.

LULU

$116.33
Lululemon, commonly styled as lululemon, is a Canadian-American multinational athletic apparel retailer headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, and incorporated in Delaware, United States, as Lululemon Athletica Inc.Lululemon（常写作lululemon）是一家加拿大裔美国跨国运动服装零售商，总部位于不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华，在美国特拉华州注册成立，公司名称为LululemonAthleticaInc.。
Secular growth长期成长 Large cap大盘 $13B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 105.43.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 105.43 下方。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$116.33
50.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 50.1%
Market Cap市值
$13B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
8.2x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.35
Moves about 1.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
48th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
8.8% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 LULU S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 -2.5% -1.5% In line with the index与指数基本持平
1 Month近1月 +4.1% +0.6% Beat the index by 3.5 points跑赢指数 3.5 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -30.5% +4.7% Lagged the index by 35.2 points落后指数 35.2 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -42.4% +7.8% Lagged the index by 50.2 points落后指数 50.2 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -44.8% +9.1% Lagged the index by 53.9 points落后指数 53.9 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -50.1% +19.4% Lagged the index by 69.5 points落后指数 69.5 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 47 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -3.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -28.2% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 48th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$115.10
Don't chase above不追高于
$116.30
Stop止损
$105.40
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 LULU Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 8.20x 20.23
94%
P/B市净率 2.61x 2.97
53%
P/S市销率 1.17x 1.23
50%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 12.19% 4.53
95%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 7.11% 5.69
65%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 9.09% 4.31
83%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 4.12x 11.48
94%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 14.06x 16.53
62%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$4.4B
2020
$6.3B
2021
$8.1B
2022
$9.6B
2023
$10.6B
2024
$11.1B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 20.3%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$4.50
2020
$7.49
2021
$6.68
2022
$12.20
2023
$14.64
2024
$13.26
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 24.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$574.1M
2020
$994.6M
2021
$327.8M
2022
$1.6B
2023
$1.6B
2024
$921.7M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
56.6%
Operating margin营业利润率
19.9%
Net margin净利率
14.2%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
14.4%
31.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
18.7%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.67
Current ratio流动比率2.26
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$1.2B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$62.2M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-4.1%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (5.5) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 71% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 71% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.35×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 46 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 34 位
Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Short interest changed +13.6%空头仓位变动 +13.6%
Technical技术面 UNCONFIRMED TURN → UPTREND未确认转向 → 上涨趋势

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大

Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.92%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.53%
Call wall看涨密集区
$120
Put wall看跌密集区
$110
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$121
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
0.3%
Skew: 偏斜：balanced

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$2.4M net (1 buyers, 3 sellers)-$2.4M 净值（1 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
Viking Global (Halvorsen) B New position新建仓 0.4% 2026-03-31
Giverny Capital C Holding持有 0.8% 2026-03-31
Scion Asset Mgmt (Burry) A trimtrim 1.3% 2025-09-30
Soros Fund Management B trimtrim 0.0% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量开始上翘；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 10, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → UPTREND未确认转向 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 9, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 8, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 6, 2026
LULU broke down vs the marketLULU 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $115.64.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$115.64。
Jun 29, 2026
LULU broke down vs the marketLULU 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $114.29.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$114.29。
Jun 26, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 26, 2026
LULU daily MACD crossed upLULU 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $117.57.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$117.57。
Jun 23, 2026
LULU StochRSI turned up from oversoldLULU StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $108.92.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$108.92。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 94 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.52
Value价值
+0.5
Profitability盈利能力
+2.4
Quality质量
-0.5
Investment资本投入
-0.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
+1.3
Low volatility低波动
-0.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.7
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.8
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.3

Company Profile公司档案

Lululemon, commonly styled as lululemon, is a Canadian-American multinational athletic apparel retailer headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, and incorporated in Delaware, United States, as Lululemon Athletica Inc.Lululemon（常写作lululemon）是一家加拿大裔美国跨国运动服装零售商，总部位于不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华，在美国特拉华州注册成立，公司名称为LululemonAthleticaInc.。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Receivables stretch
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