Smurfit Westrock · Materials
SW
$44.30
Smurfit Westrock plc is an Irish company based in Dublin, Ireland, that manufactures corrugated and paper-based packaging. Its stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.SmurfitWestrockplc是一家爱尔兰公司，总部位于爱尔兰都柏林，生产瓦楞纸和纸基包装。其股票在纽约证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所上市。
Distressed困境股
Large cap大盘
$23B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
Confirmed cycle low — the entry window is open now, with a clear exit if it closes back below 42.08.周期低点已确认——入场窗口现已开启，若收盘重新跌破 42.08 则明确离场。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$44.30
13.6% below 52-week high低于52周高点 13.6%
Market Cap市值
$23B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
33.1x
28.6x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
13.2x
EPS每股收益 $1.34
Beta贝塔
1.43
Moves about 1.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
4.08%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
50th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.3% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | SW | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.2% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 1.7 points跑赢指数 1.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +2.0% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 1.4 points跑赢指数 1.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +6.1% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 1.4 points跑赢指数 1.4 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +5.8% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 2.0 points落后指数 2.0 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +14.1% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 5.0 points跑赢指数 5.0 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -0.9% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 20.3 points落后指数 20.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +28.4% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 41.0 points落后指数 41.0 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | -6.6% | +83.9% | Lagged the index by 90.5 points落后指数 90.5 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
Golden Cross (7/35)1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralInsider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis)
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+4.8% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+9.4% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
17
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
50th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$43.72
Don't chase above不追高于
$44.77
Stop止损
$42.08
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being raised — 3 analysts预期上调 — 3 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | SW | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 33.10x | 28.57 | 35% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 13.2x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 1.26x | 2.82 | 85% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.74x | 1.64 | 77% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.02% | 2.96 | 52% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 5.19% | 3.23 | 71% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.00% | 2.70 | 3% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 8.39x | 12.20 | 81% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 19.28x | 25.03 | 64% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 47.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 62.2%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
3.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
1.5%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 2.97 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.48 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $139.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.4% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 7/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.5)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 70% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 70% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.43×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
7/9
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
4.08%
Pays a dividend (4.08% yield)有分红（收益率 4.08%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Materials (Equal-Weight) theme — #26 of 46 themes「材料（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 26 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
SW StochRSI turned up from oversoldSW StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.04%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.81%
Call wall看涨密集区
$45
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-27.5%
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$3.4M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$3.4M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | Holding持有 | 1.4% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
FRESH BUY
BUY ZONE
Jul 13, 2026
SW StochRSI turned up from oversoldSW StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $43.15.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$43.15。
Jul 6, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
SW daily MACD crossed downSW 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $45.64.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$45.64。
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 17, 2026
Golden cross on SWSW 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $43.42.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$43.42。
Jun 12, 2026
SW weekly MACD crossed upSW 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jun 11, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 11, 2026
SW reclaimed its 200-day averageSW 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $42.69.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$42.69。
Jun 10, 2026
SW lost its 200-day averageSW 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $38.95.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$38.95。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.17
Value价值
+0.8
Profitability盈利能力
-1.0
Quality质量
+0.1
Investment资本投入
+0.3
Shareholder payout股东回报
-1.0
Low volatility低波动
-0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.8
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.2
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.1
Company Profile公司档案
Smurfit Westrock plc is an Irish company based in Dublin, Ireland, that manufactures corrugated and paper-based packaging. Its stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.SmurfitWestrockplc是一家爱尔兰公司，总部位于爱尔兰都柏林，生产瓦楞纸和纸基包装。其股票在纽约证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所上市。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
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