PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
·
$233.07
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
Terminal终端 ↗
Packaging Corporation of America · Materials
PKG
$233.07
Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois. The company has about 15,500 employees, with operations primarily in the United States.美国包装公司（PackagingCorporationofAmerica）是一家美国制造企业，总部位于伊利诺伊州莱克福里斯特，员工约15,500人，业务主要在美国境内。
Cyclical周期股
Large cap大盘
$21B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~24 day(s) ago @ 222.93 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's m日线转向已经完成——低点于约 24 天前形成 @ 222.93，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$233.07
4.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 4.2%
Market Cap市值
$21B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
27.1x
28.6x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
18.5x
EPS每股收益 $8.60
Beta贝塔
0.72
Moves about 0.7x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
2.57%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
55
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-22 (3d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
27th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
3.9% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | PKG | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +1.9% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 3.4 points跑赢指数 3.4 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +1.7% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 1.1 points跑赢指数 1.1 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +9.9% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 5.2 points跑赢指数 5.2 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +6.6% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 1.2 points落后指数 1.2 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +11.8% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 2.7 points跑赢指数 2.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +18.1% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 1.3 points落后指数 1.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +86.1% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 16.7 points跑赢指数 16.7 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +100.2% | +83.9% | Beat the index by 16.3 points跑赢指数 16.3 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralIchimoku — Price Above CloudTrend Ribbon — Uptrend State
RSI (14)RSI（14）
55
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+3.7% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+9.1% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
14
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
27th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$231.20
Don't chase above不追高于
$234.60
Stop止损
$222.90
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
3
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-22
Estimates being raised — 3 analysts预期上调 — 3 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -3.3% (20d)财报后漂移：-3.3%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | PKG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 27.09x | 28.57 | 56% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 18.5x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 4.56x | 2.82 | 15% |
| P/S市销率 | 2.33x | 1.64 | 34% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.69% | 2.96 | 68% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.47% | 3.23 | 52% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.87% | 2.70 | 52% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 13.87x | 12.20 | 42% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 28.78x | 25.03 | 41% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 6.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 12.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
16.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
7.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 1.95 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 3.17 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $153.0M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $45.2M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.2% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.0)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 40% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 40% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.72×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.7× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
2.57%
Pays a dividend (2.57% yield)有分红（收益率 2.57%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Materials (Equal-Weight) theme — #26 of 46 themes「材料（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 26 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -12.2%空头仓位变动 -12.2%
Technical技术面
PKG StochRSI turned up from oversoldPKG StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.38%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.33%
Call wall看涨密集区
$250
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.2%
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$2.8M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$2.8M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 16, 2026
PKG StochRSI turned up from oversoldPKG StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $234.04.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$234.04。
Jul 7, 2026
PKG daily MACD crossed downPKG 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $232.40.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$232.40。
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 29, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 26, 2026
PKG took relative-strength leadershipPKG 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $241.55.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$241.55。
Jun 12, 2026
PKG weekly MACD crossed upPKG 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jun 11, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 2338 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.26
Value价值
-0.5
Profitability盈利能力
-0.8
Quality质量
+0.0
Investment资本投入
-0.8
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.3
Low volatility低波动
+0.8
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.6
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.4
Company Profile公司档案
Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois. The company has about 15,500 employees, with operations primarily in the United States.美国包装公司（PackagingCorporationofAmerica）是一家美国制造企业，总部位于伊利诺伊州莱克福里斯特，员工约15,500人，业务主要在美国境内。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Capital intensity rising
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