Amcor · Materials
AMCR
$43.94
Amcor plc is an Australian-founded Jersey-domiciled global packaging company based in Switzerland. It develops and produces flexible packaging, rigid containers, specialty cartons, closures and services for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical-device, home and personal-care, and other products.Amcorplc是一家成立于澳大利亚、注册在泽西岛、总部位于瑞士的全球包装公司。它为食品、饮料、制药、医疗器械、家居及个人护理等产品开发和生产软包装、硬质容器、特种纸箱、封口及相关服务。
Distressed困境股
Large cap大盘
$20B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Stretched/late — protect gains and don't start new positions; let the next low set up first.已拉伸／晚期——保护利润，不要新开仓；先等下一个低点构筑成形。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$43.94
10.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 10.5%
Market Cap市值
$20B
Above-average volume成交量高于平均
P/E Ratio市盈率
39.7x
28.6x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
10.3x
EPS每股收益 $1.11
Beta贝塔
0.84
Moves about 0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
5.92%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
59
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
58th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
6.2% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | AMCR | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +1.8% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 3.3 points跑赢指数 3.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +7.8% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 7.2 points跑赢指数 7.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +6.5% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 1.8 points跑赢指数 1.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +10.5% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 2.7 points跑赢指数 2.7 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +7.6% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 1.5 points落后指数 1.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -4.8% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 24.2 points落后指数 24.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +0.8% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 68.6 points落后指数 68.6 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | -4.8% | +83.9% | Lagged the index by 88.7 points落后指数 88.7 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralInsider Buy signal — fires when Insider Power ≥ 60 (net buying on quality-weighted basis)Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud
RSI (14)RSI（14）
59
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+8.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+7.2% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
22
Trending趋势中
Volatility rank波动率分位
58th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$43.19
Don't chase above不追高于
$43.94
Stop止损
$39.92
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -7.4% (20d)财报后漂移：-7.4%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | AMCR | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 39.73x | 28.57 | 15% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 10.3x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 1.74x | 2.82 | 64% |
| P/S市销率 | 1.35x | 1.64 | 57% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.52% | 2.96 | 38% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.99% | 3.23 | 58% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.16% | 2.70 | 78% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 11.25x | 12.20 | 58% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 25.06x | 25.03 | 48% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 1.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -3.5%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
4.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
1.4%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.48 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.21 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $74.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -68.0% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/7
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.0)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 50% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 50% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.84×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/7
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
5.92%
Pays a dividend (5.92% yield)有分红（收益率 5.92%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Materials (Equal-Weight) theme — #26 of 46 themes「材料（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 26 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
AMCR StochRSI turned up from oversoldAMCR StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.88%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.20%
Call wall看涨密集区
$45
Put wall看跌密集区
$42
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.7%
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: +$2.6M net (5 buyers, 2 sellers)+$2.6M 净值（5 买家，2 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
AMCR StochRSI turned up from oversoldAMCR StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $44.84.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$44.84。
Jul 9, 2026
AMCR daily MACD crossed downAMCR 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $42.70.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$42.70。
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 2, 2026
AMCR RSI reached overboughtAMCR RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $45.00.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$45.00。
Jun 30, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 29, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.68
Value价值
+0.1
Profitability盈利能力
-1.4
Quality质量
-0.3
Investment资本投入
-3.0
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.0
Low volatility低波动
+0.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.2
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.4
Company Profile公司档案
Amcor plc is an Australian-founded Jersey-domiciled global packaging company based in Switzerland. It develops and produces flexible packaging, rigid containers, specialty cartons, closures and services for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical-device, home and personal-care, and other products.Amcorplc是一家成立于澳大利亚、注册在泽西岛、总部位于瑞士的全球包装公司。它为食品、饮料、制药、医疗器械、家居及个人护理等产品开发和生产软包装、硬质容器、特种纸箱、封口及相关服务。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
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