Supermicro · Tech
SMCI
$24.18
Super Micro Computer, Inc., doing business as Supermicro, is an American information technology company based in San Jose, California.SuperMicroComputer,Inc.，以Supermicro为品牌运营，是一家美国信息技术公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$14B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$24.18
60.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 60.2%
Market Cap市值
$14B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
13.8x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
3.44
Moves about 3.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 3.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
35
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
72th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
17.2% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | SMCI | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -14.6% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 13.1 points落后指数 13.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -13.0% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 13.6 points落后指数 13.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -15.3% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 20.0 points落后指数 20.0 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -25.9% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 33.7 points落后指数 33.7 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -21.9% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 31.0 points落后指数 31.0 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -54.2% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 73.6 points落后指数 73.6 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
35
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-27.4% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-29.0% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
72th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$24.18
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | SMCI | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 13.81x | 40.17 | 90% |
| P/B市净率 | 2.07x | 5.85 | 86% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.66x | 4.85 | 94% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.24% | 2.19 | 92% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.58% | 3.05 | 93% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 7.20x | 29.30 | 94% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 9.45x | 30.46 | 91% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 45.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 1.0%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
15.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
3.7%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -4.00 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 5.25 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $314.5M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.9% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.2)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 91% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 91% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
3.44×
0.21×3×
Moves about 3.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 3.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
SMCI broke down vs the marketSMCI 相对市场走弱
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±6.73%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±15.06%
Call wall看涨密集区
$26
Put wall看跌密集区
$24
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$25
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
2.9%
Flow资金流向
$73M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 83 fresh positions; P/C 0.53; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $73M；0DTE占0%；83个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.53；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：greed
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$3.5M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$3.5M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 16, 2026
SMCI broke down vs the marketSMCI 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $24.68.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$24.68。
Jul 10, 2026
SMCI weekly MACD crossed downSMCI 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 9, 2026
SMCI StochRSI turned up from oversoldSMCI StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $28.24.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$28.24。
Jul 8, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 1, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 83 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -1.37
Value价值
+0.7
Profitability盈利能力
-1.3
Quality质量
-0.2
Investment资本投入
-3.0
Low volatility低波动
-3.0
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-3.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.2
Company Profile公司档案
Super Micro Computer, Inc., doing business as Supermicro, is an American information technology company based in San Jose, California.SuperMicroComputer,Inc.，以Supermicro为品牌运营，是一家美国信息技术公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI accelerator / compute silicon云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 加速器／算力芯片的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。