ONTO
Onto Innovation
·
$279.85
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Terminal终端 ↗
Onto Innovation · Tech
ONTO
$279.85
Onto Innovation Inc. is an American semiconductor company formed in 2019 from the merger of Rudolph Technologies, Inc.OntoInnovationInc.是一家美国半导体公司，于2019年由RudolphTechnologies,Inc.合并而成。
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
Large cap大盘
$14B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
A cycle low is due in roughly ~0–4 trading days — watch for the turn, don't front-run it.周期低点预计在约 ~0–4 个交易日内出现——等待转向，切勿抢跑。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$279.85
26.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 26.1%
Market Cap市值
$14B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
101.7x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
2.93
Moves about 2.9x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.9 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
44
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
97th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.3% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | ONTO | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -12.9% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 11.4 points落后指数 11.4 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -12.3% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 12.9 points落后指数 12.9 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -3.8% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 8.5 points落后指数 8.5 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +27.1% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 19.3 points跑赢指数 19.3 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +68.7% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 59.6 points跑赢指数 59.6 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +183.5% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 164.1 points跑赢指数 164.1 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +145.5% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 76.1 points跑赢指数 76.1 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
44
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-5.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+30.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
97th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$255.15
Don't chase above不追高于
$279.90
Stop止损
$279.90
Watch — a low is approaching观察 — 低点临近
Earnings财务业绩
18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -7.3% (20d)财报后漂移：-7.3%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | ONTO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 101.71x | 40.17 | 16% |
| P/B市净率 | 6.62x | 5.85 | 45% |
| P/S市销率 | 13.84x | 4.85 | 13% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.98% | 2.19 | 28% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.16% | 3.05 | 37% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.54% | 2.16 | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 88.10x | 29.30 | 14% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 46.39x | 30.46 | 31% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 25.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 3.5%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
6.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
5.8%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -2.25 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 5.79 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $75.0M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $27.6M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.9% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (32.8)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 25% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 25% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.93×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.9× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.9 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Semiconductor Equipment (WFE) theme — #38 of 46 themes「半导体设备（晶圆厂设备）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 38 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
ONTO weekly MACD crossed downONTO 周线MACD下穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±6.97%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±15.59%
Call wall看涨密集区
$300
Put wall看跌密集区
$270
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-10.9%
Flow资金流向
$6M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 4 fresh positions; P/C 3.5; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $6M；0DTE占0%；4个新建仓；看跌看涨比 3.5；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Signal History信号历史
BOTTOM WATCH
NEARING A LOW
Jul 17, 2026
ONTO weekly MACD crossed downONTO 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 14, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 10, 2026
ONTO StochRSI turned up from oversoldONTO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $321.44.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$321.44。
Jul 8, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 6, 2026
ONTO daily MACD crossed downONTO 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $303.86.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$303.86。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 252 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.62
Value价值
-0.9
Profitability盈利能力
-0.6
Quality质量
+0.5
Investment资本投入
-0.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.9
Low volatility低波动
-1.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-2.8
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.6
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.9
Company Profile公司档案
Onto Innovation Inc. is an American semiconductor company formed in 2019 from the merger of Rudolph Technologies, Inc.OntoInnovationInc.是一家美国半导体公司，于2019年由RudolphTechnologies,Inc.合并而成。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for wafer-fab equipment (one step back, longer lead)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——晶圆制造设备（上游一环，前置更长）的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Inventory build
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。