LUMN Lumen Technologies · $6.28 Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利 Terminal终端 ↗

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Lumen Technologies · Comm. Services

LUMN

$6.28
Lumen Technologies, Inc. is an American telecommunications company headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.LumenTechnologies,Inc.是一家美国电信公司，总部位于路易斯安那州门罗。
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利 Mid cap中盘 $6B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$6.28
46.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 46.9%
Market Cap市值
$6B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
3.02
Moves about 3.0x the market波动幅度约为市场的 3.0 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
29
Oversold超卖区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-30 (11d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
15th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.8% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 LUMN S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 -6.7% -1.5% Lagged the index by 5.2 points落后指数 5.2 个百分点
1 Month近1月 -22.5% +0.6% Lagged the index by 23.1 points落后指数 23.1 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -26.7% +4.7% Lagged the index by 31.4 points落后指数 31.4 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -25.7% +7.8% Lagged the index by 33.5 points落后指数 33.5 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -18.3% +9.1% Lagged the index by 27.4 points落后指数 27.4 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +43.1% +19.4% Beat the index by 23.7 points跑赢指数 23.7 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +287.7% +69.4% Beat the index by 218.3 points跑赢指数 218.3 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 29 Oversold超卖区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -25.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -22.3% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 15th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$6.28
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期

Earnings财务业绩

11
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-30

Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 LUMN Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/S市销率 0.52x 1.75
96%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 -27.00% 2.33
8%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 5.76% 5.94
50%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 2.81x 11.71
96%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 17.36x 11.84
38%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$20.7B
2020
$19.7B
2021
$17.5B
2022
$14.6B
2023
$13.1B
2024
$12.4B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -9.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$-1.14
2020
$1.91
2021
$-1.54
2022
$-10.48
2023
$-0.06
2024
$-1.75
2025
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$2.8B
2020
$3.6B
2021
$1.7B
2022
-$940.0M
2023
$1.1B
2024
$371.0M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
-6.5%
Net margin净利率
-14.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
38.2%
155.7%Return on Equity股本回报率
-5.1%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.52
Current ratio流动比率1.80
Capital Allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$48.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+1.1%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (-0.3) Watch关注

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 81% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 81% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
3.02×
0.21×3×
Moves about 3.0× the market波动幅度约为市场的 3.0 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 LUMN RSI reached oversoldLUMN RSI进入超卖

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.1M net (1 buyers, 1 sellers)+$0.1M 净值（1 买家，1 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases)回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）
DECLINE DOWNTREND
Jul 16, 2026
LUMN RSI reached oversoldLUMN RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $6.31.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$6.31。
Jul 13, 2026
LUMN RSI reached oversoldLUMN RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $6.45.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$6.45。
Jul 9, 2026
LUMN StochRSI turned up from oversoldLUMN StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $6.75.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$6.75。
Jul 2, 2026
LUMN RSI reached oversoldLUMN RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $6.43.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$6.43。
Jul 1, 2026
LUMN broke down vs the marketLUMN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $7.15.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$7.15。
Jun 29, 2026
LUMN lost its 200-day averageLUMN 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $7.96.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$7.96。
Jun 25, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 25, 2026
LUMN StochRSI turned up from oversoldLUMN StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $8.32.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$8.32。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 237 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.17
Value价值
-1.2
Quality质量
+3.0
Investment资本投入
+0.3
Low volatility低波动
-2.8
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-2.9
Earnings quality盈利质量
+2.4
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.2

Company Profile公司档案

Lumen Technologies, Inc. is an American telecommunications company headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.LumenTechnologies,Inc.是一家美国电信公司，总部位于路易斯安那州门罗。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Receivables stretch
  • Capital intensity rising
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