Illinois Tool Works · Industrials
ITW
$276.05
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is an American Fortune 500 company that produces engineered fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems, and specialty products.伊利诺伊工具制造公司（ITW）是一家美国《财富》500强企业，生产工程紧固件和组件、设备和耗材系统以及特种产品。
Cyclical周期股
Large cap大盘
$80B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Trend intact — hold. Late in the cycle, so don't add here; a pullback is due.趋势完好——持有。已处周期晚期，此处不宜加仓；回调即将到来。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$276.05
7.3% below 52-week high低于52周高点 7.3%
Market Cap市值
$80B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
0.56
Moves about 0.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
60
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
85th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
3.5% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | ITW | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +2.7% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 4.2 points跑赢指数 4.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +6.0% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 5.4 points跑赢指数 5.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.4% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 3.3 points落后指数 3.3 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +5.4% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 2.4 points落后指数 2.4 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +11.3% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 2.2 points跑赢指数 2.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +9.2% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 10.2 points落后指数 10.2 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
60
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+6.7% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+6.6% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
85th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$270.45
Don't chase above不追高于
$276.00
Stop止损
$252.90
Hold — don't add here持有 — 此处不宜加仓
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -7.9% (20d)财报后漂移：-7.9%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | ITW | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S市销率 | 4.97x | 2.21 | 16% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.40% | 3.81 | 42% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.12% | 2.29 | 71% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 19.08x | 16.39 | 34% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 29.43x | 25.50 | 37% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 5.0%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 9.6%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 1.51 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.21 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $1.5B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $69.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -1.8% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (8.2)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 31% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 31% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.56×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #15 of 46 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 15 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.62%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±3.63%
Call wall看涨密集区
$280
Put wall看跌密集区
$260
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$223
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.7%
Flow资金流向
$1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 1 fresh positions; P/C 0.01; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；1个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.01；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$53.6M net (1 buyers, 4 sellers)-$53.6M 净值（1 买家，4 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
RALLY ON
UPTREND
Jul 15, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 13, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 13, 2026
ITW daily MACD crossed upITW 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $271.50.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$271.50。
Jul 13, 2026
ITW StochRSI turned up from oversoldITW StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $271.50.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$271.50。
Jul 10, 2026
ITW daily MACD crossed downITW 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $268.81.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$268.81。
Jul 8, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 7, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 3, 2026
ITW weekly MACD crossed upITW 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 92 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.16
Value价值
-0.6
Quality质量
-1.4
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.0
Low volatility低波动
+1.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.4
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.5
Company Profile公司档案
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is an American Fortune 500 company that produces engineered fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems, and specialty products.伊利诺伊工具制造公司（ITW）是一家美国《财富》500强企业，生产工程紧固件和组件、设备和耗材系统以及特种产品。
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。