HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · $78.91 Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利 Terminal终端 ↗

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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · Materials

HCC

$78.91
Mixed profile混合特征 Mid cap中盘 $4B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$78.91
28.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 28.4%
Market Cap市值
$4B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
72.8x
28.6x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.48
Moves about 0.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
39
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-05 (17d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
21th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
7.0% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 HCC S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 -1.5% -1.5% In line with the index与指数基本持平
1 Month近1月 -17.0% +0.6% Lagged the index by 17.6 points落后指数 17.6 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -8.6% +4.7% Lagged the index by 13.3 points落后指数 13.3 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -21.0% +7.8% Lagged the index by 28.8 points落后指数 28.8 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -11.7% +9.1% Lagged the index by 20.8 points落后指数 20.8 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +50.4% +19.4% Beat the index by 31.0 points跑赢指数 31.0 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +105.7% +69.4% Beat the index by 36.3 points跑赢指数 36.3 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 39 Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -11.1% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -6.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 21th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$77.74
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期

Earnings财务业绩

17
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-05

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 HCC Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 72.78x 28.57
6%
P/B市净率 1.94x 2.82
60%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 1.37% 2.96
30%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 17.09x 12.20
31%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$782.7M
2020
$1.1B
2021
$1.7B
2022
$1.7B
2023
$1.5B
2024
$1.3B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 10.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$-0.70
2020
$2.93
2021
$12.40
2022
$9.20
2023
$4.79
2024
$1.08
2025
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$25.1M
2020
$293.6M
2021
$636.7M
2022
2023
2024
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
3.5%
2.7%Return on Equity股本回报率
2.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.62
Current ratio流动比率3.19
Capital Allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$20.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.5%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/9 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (5.6) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 32% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 32% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.48×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Short interest changed -11.1%空头仓位变动 -11.1%
Technical技术面 HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$12.6M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$12.6M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
Dalal Street (Mohnish Pabrai) D Holding持有 39.9% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases). Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
DECLINE DOWNTREND
Jul 15, 2026
HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $81.85.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$81.85。
Jul 14, 2026
HCC daily MACD crossed upHCC 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $83.33.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$83.33。
Jul 10, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 10, 2026
HCC StochRSI turned up from oversoldHCC StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $80.09.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$80.09。
Jul 7, 2026
HCC StochRSI turned up from oversoldHCC StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $77.74.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$77.74。
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 26, 2026
HCC lost its 200-day averageHCC 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $81.28.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$81.28。
Jun 24, 2026
HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $84.15.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$84.15。
Jun 19, 2026
HCC weekly MACD crossed downHCC 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 257 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.03
Value价值
+0.0
Quality质量
+0.9
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Low volatility低波动
-1.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.5
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.2

Company Profile公司档案

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Receivables stretch
  • Inventory build
  • Capital intensity rising
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