Century Aluminum Company · Materials
CENX
$41.50
Century Aluminum Company is a US-based producer of primary aluminum, with aluminum plants in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iceland. It is the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States.CenturyAluminumCompany是一家美国原铝生产商，在肯塔基州、南卡罗来纳州和冰岛设有铝厂，是美国最大的原铝生产商。
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
Mid cap中盘
$4B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$41.50
39.7% below 52-week high低于52周高点 39.7%
Market Cap市值
$4B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
102.7x
28.6x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.60
Moves about 1.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.6 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
32
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
43th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
9.6% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CENX | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -7.1% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 5.6 points落后指数 5.6 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -23.6% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 24.2 points落后指数 24.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -33.3% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 38.0 points落后指数 38.0 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -12.8% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 20.6 points落后指数 20.6 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +1.4% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 7.7 points落后指数 7.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +106.6% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 87.2 points跑赢指数 87.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +367.3% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 297.9 points跑赢指数 297.9 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
32
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-24.7% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-11.2% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
43th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$41.50
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06
Estimates being raised — 2 analysts预期上调 — 2 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +2.3% (20d)财报后漂移：+2.3%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | CENX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 102.68x | 28.57 | 2% |
| P/B市净率 | 5.10x | 2.82 | 12% |
| P/S市销率 | 1.62x | 1.64 | 50% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.97% | 2.96 | 28% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.06% | 3.23 | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 15.90x | 12.20 | 38% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 48.43x | 25.03 | 19% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 9.5%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
5.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
1.8%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.54 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.97 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $47.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +6.1% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.3)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 27% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 27% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.60×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +15.5%空头仓位变动 +15.5%
Technical技术面
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$625.3M net (0 buyers, 10 sellers)-$625.3M 净值（0 买家，10 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 13, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 10, 2026
CENX daily MACD crossed upCENX 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $44.67.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$44.67。
Jul 7, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 7, 2026
CENX lost its 200-day averageCENX 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $45.28.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$45.28。
Jul 6, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 6, 2026
CENX reclaimed its 200-day averageCENX 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $46.68.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$46.68。
Jul 6, 2026
CENX StochRSI turned up from oversoldCENX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $46.68.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$46.68。
Jul 1, 2026
CENX lost its 200-day averageCENX 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $43.03.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$43.03。
Jul 1, 2026
CENX RSI reached oversoldCENX RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $43.03.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$43.03。
Jun 30, 2026
CENX StochRSI turned up from oversoldCENX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $46.01.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$46.01。
Jun 25, 2026
CENX reclaimed its 200-day averageCENX 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $45.96.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$45.96。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 262 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.63
Value价值
-0.6
Profitability盈利能力
-1.1
Quality质量
+0.2
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Low volatility低波动
-1.7
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.1
Company Profile公司档案
Century Aluminum Company is a US-based producer of primary aluminum, with aluminum plants in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iceland. It is the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States.CenturyAluminumCompany是一家美国原铝生产商，在肯塔基州、南卡罗来纳州和冰岛设有铝厂，是美国最大的原铝生产商。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
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