CF Industries · Materials
CF
$121.42
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products.CFIndustriesHoldings,Inc.是一家美国农业肥料制造商和经销商，产品包括氨、尿素和硝酸铵。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$19B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~17 day(s) ago @ 102.17 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's m日线转向已经完成——低点于约 17 天前形成 @ 102.17，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$121.42
11.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 11.4%
Market Cap市值
$19B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
-0.78
Moves about -0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 -0.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
64
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-05 (17d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
23th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
6.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CF | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +3.8% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 5.3 points跑赢指数 5.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +14.7% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 14.1 points跑赢指数 14.1 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +8.2% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 3.5 points跑赢指数 3.5 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +41.3% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 33.5 points跑赢指数 33.5 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +53.0% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 43.9 points跑赢指数 43.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +35.1% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 15.7 points跑赢指数 15.7 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
64
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+6.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+20.5% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
23th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$119.75
Don't chase above不追高于
$122.70
Stop止损
$102.20
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
17
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-05
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -3.8% (20d)财报后漂移：-3.8%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | CF | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 3.85x | 2.82 | 31% |
| P/S市销率 | 2.63x | 1.64 | 31% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 9.67% | 3.23 | 94% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 9.07% | 2.70 | 95% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 6.22x | 12.20 | 90% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 10.35x | 25.03 | 91% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 11.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 43.6%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.39 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 3.37 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $1.4B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $45.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -9.6% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 8/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.8)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 62% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 62% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
-0.78×
0.21×3×
Has tended to move opposite the market (factor-adjusted)经因子调整后常与大盘反向波动
Financial Health财务健康
8/9
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Materials (Equal-Weight) theme — #26 of 46 themes「材料（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 26 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.91%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.51%
Call wall看涨密集区
$130
Put wall看跌密集区
$109
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$96
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.5%
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$72.2M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$72.2M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Fairholme Capital (Berkowitz) | A | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 15, 2026
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → UPTREND未确认转向 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 26, 2026
CF daily MACD crossed upCF 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $105.70.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$105.70。
Jun 25, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 25, 2026
CF StochRSI turned up from oversoldCF StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $105.49.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$105.49。
Jun 23, 2026
CF printed a daily-cycle lowCF 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $102.17.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$102.17。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 104 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.11
Value价值
-0.5
Profitability盈利能力
-0.7
Quality质量
+0.5
Investment资本投入
+0.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
+1.3
Low volatility低波动
-0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+2.2
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.1
Company Profile公司档案
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products.CFIndustriesHoldings,Inc.是一家美国农业肥料制造商和经销商，产品包括氨、尿素和硝酸铵。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) flat (+4% YoY to ~$2B, 0.3× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）持平（同比+4%，约 $2B，覆盖营收 0.3 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
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