BJ's Wholesale Club · Staples
BJ
$93.40
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., commonly referred as BJ's, is an American regional membership-only warehouse club chain based in Marlborough, Massachusetts, operating in the eastern United States in addition to Ohio, Michigan, Louisville, Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Texas.BJ'sWholesaleClubHoldings,Inc.，通常简称为BJ's，是一家美国区域性的会员制仓储俱乐部连锁店，总部位于马萨诸塞州马尔伯勒，业务覆盖美国东部以及俄亥俄州、密歇根州、路易斯维尔（肯塔基州）、印第安纳州、田纳西州、佛罗里达州、阿拉巴马州和德克萨斯州。
Mixed profile混合特征
Large cap大盘
$12B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Confirmed cycle low — the entry window is open now, with a clear exit if it closes back below 83.82.周期低点已确认——入场窗口现已开启，若收盘重新跌破 83.82 则明确离场。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$93.40
15.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 15.1%
Market Cap市值
$12B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
20.9x
24.1x sector median
Beta贝塔
-0.49
Moves about -0.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 -0.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
Volatility Rank波动率分位
56th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
6.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | BJ | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +6.1% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 7.6 points跑赢指数 7.6 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +7.6% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 7.0 points跑赢指数 7.0 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.4% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 3.3 points落后指数 3.3 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +0.0% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 7.8 points落后指数 7.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +1.6% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 7.5 points落后指数 7.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -11.2% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 30.6 points落后指数 30.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +48.3% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 21.1 points落后指数 21.1 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+4.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+0.5% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
56th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$92.38
Don't chase above不追高于
$94.22
Stop止损
$83.82
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | BJ | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 20.95x | 24.10 | 60% |
| P/B市净率 | 5.51x | 3.38 | 31% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.56x | 1.28 | 70% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.77% | 3.76 | 66% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.71% | 4.71 | 24% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.37% | 2.48 | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 11.38x | 12.39 | 58% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 36.91x | 21.12 | 20% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 6.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 7.6%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
26.3%Return on Equity股本回报率
7.7%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.43 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.75 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $286.8M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $47.2M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -1.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 8/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.7)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 49% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 49% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
-0.49×
0.21×3×
Has tended to move opposite the market (factor-adjusted)经因子调整后常与大盘反向波动
Financial Health财务健康
8/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Retail theme — #24 of 46 themes「零售」主题 — 46 个主题中第 24 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BJ weekly MACD crossed upBJ 周线MACD上穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.19%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.89%
Put wall看跌密集区
$85
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-11.7%
Flow资金流向
$0M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; P/C 0.26; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $0M；0DTE占0%；看跌看涨比 0.26；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$4.8M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$4.8M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
FRESH BUY
BUY ZONE
Jul 17, 2026
BJ weekly MACD crossed upBJ 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 16, 2026
BJ reclaimed its 200-day averageBJ 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $93.07.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$93.07。
Jul 14, 2026
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 14, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 8, 2026
BJ broke down vs the marketBJ 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $86.71.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$86.71。
Jul 7, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 1, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.28
Value价值
+0.1
Quality质量
+1.0
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.4
Low volatility低波动
+0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+1.8
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.2
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.0
Company Profile公司档案
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., commonly referred as BJ's, is an American regional membership-only warehouse club chain based in Marlborough, Massachusetts, operating in the eastern United States in addition to Ohio, Michigan, Louisville, Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Texas.BJ'sWholesaleClubHoldings,Inc.，通常简称为BJ's，是一家美国区域性的会员制仓储俱乐部连锁店，总部位于马萨诸塞州马尔伯勒，业务覆盖美国东部以及俄亥俄州、密歇根州、路易斯维尔（肯塔基州）、印第安纳州、田纳西州、佛罗里达州、阿拉巴马州和德克萨斯州。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。