APPF AppFolio · $179.73 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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AppFolio · Tech

APPF

$179.73
AppFolio, Inc. is an American company founded in 2006 that offers software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications and services to the real estate industry.AppFolio,Inc.是一家美国公司，成立于2006年，为房地产行业提供软件即服务（SaaS）应用与解决方案。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$179.73
44.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 44.1%
Beta贝塔
0.31
Moves about 0.3x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.3 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-30 (11d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
58th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数

Performance价格表现

Period周期 APPF S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +2.4% -1.5% Beat the index by 3.9 points跑赢指数 3.9 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +21.0% +0.6% Beat the index by 20.4 points跑赢指数 20.4 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +14.9% +4.7% Beat the index by 10.2 points跑赢指数 10.2 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -17.5% +7.8% Lagged the index by 25.3 points落后指数 25.3 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -22.0% +9.1% Lagged the index by 31.1 points落后指数 31.1 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -29.2% +19.4% Lagged the index by 48.6 points落后指数 48.6 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -7.3% +69.4% Lagged the index by 76.7 points落后指数 76.7 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 61 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +9.8% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -8.0% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 58th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$171.65
Don't chase above不追高于
$179.70
Stop止损
$144.40
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

11
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-30

Estimates being raised — 7 analysts预期上调 — 7 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$310.1M
2020
$359.4M
2021
$471.9M
2022
$620.4M
2023
$794.2M
2024
$950.8M
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 25.1%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$4.44
2020
$0.03
2021
$-1.95
2022
$0.07
2023
$5.55
2024
$3.88
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -2.7%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$29.3M
2020
$27.3M
2021
$18.8M
2022
$51.2M
2023
$186.1M
2024
$238.9M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
16.1%
Net margin净利率
14.8%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
25.5%
26.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
20.5%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.61
Current ratio流动比率3.31
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$145.7M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$70.8M
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/6 Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Beta市场敏感度
0.31×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.3× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.3 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/6
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$2.3M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$2.3M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~18 day(s) ago @ 144.38) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 18 天前形成 @ 144.38）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 14, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 6, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
APPF daily MACD crossed upAPPF 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $160.35.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$160.35。
Jun 26, 2026
DOWNTREND → BUY ZONE下跌趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 26, 2026
APPF StochRSI turned up from oversoldAPPF StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $155.64.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$155.64。
Jun 22, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 22, 2026
APPF printed a daily-cycle lowAPPF 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $144.38.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$144.38。

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Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.39
Quality质量
+1.7
Investment资本投入
-0.1
Low volatility低波动
-0.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.7
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.8
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.8

Company Profile公司档案

AppFolio, Inc. is an American company founded in 2006 that offers software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications and services to the real estate industry.AppFolio,Inc.是一家美国公司，成立于2006年，为房地产行业提供软件即服务（SaaS）应用与解决方案。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Receivables stretch
  • Capital intensity rising
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