Twilio · Tech
TWLO
$206.78
Twilio Inc. is an American cloud communications company based in San Francisco, California, which provides programmable communication tools for making and receiving phone calls, sending and receiving text messages, and performing other communication functions using its web service APIs.TwilioInc.是一家美国云通信公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山，通过其网络服务API提供用于拨打和接听电话、发送和接收短信以及执行其他通信功能的可编程通信工具。
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
Large cap大盘
$32B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the daily momentum is already rollin筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且日线动量已开始掉头向下——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$206.78
12.6% below 52-week high低于52周高点 12.6%
Market Cap市值
$32B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
926.9x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.38
Moves about 1.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
6th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.9% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | TWLO | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.6% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 2.1 points落后指数 2.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +9.9% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 9.3 points跑赢指数 9.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +47.6% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 42.9 points跑赢指数 42.9 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +73.7% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 65.9 points跑赢指数 65.9 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +49.5% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 40.4 points跑赢指数 40.4 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +63.6% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 44.2 points跑赢指数 44.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +215.6% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 146.2 points跑赢指数 146.2 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+2.2% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+42.3% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
6th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$204.00
Don't chase above不追高于
$206.80
Stop止损
$183.60
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06
Estimates being raised — 3 analysts预期上调 — 3 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | TWLO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 926.93x | 40.17 | 4% |
| P/B市净率 | 4.03x | 5.85 | 62% |
| P/S市销率 | 6.22x | 4.85 | 38% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.11% | 2.19 | 17% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.76% | 2.16 | 58% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 90.09x | 29.30 | 14% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 23.5%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
0.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
0.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.88 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 4.03 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $868.9M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $600.4M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.1% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (9.4)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 30% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 30% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.38×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -20.9%空头仓位变动 -20.9%
Technical技术面
TWLO daily MACD crossed downTWLO 日线MACD下穿
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$139.8M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$139.8M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | New position新建仓 | 0.7% | 2026-03-31 |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | New position新建仓 | 0.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Sachem Head Capital | D | Holding持有 | 7.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Durable Capital Partners | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 17, 2026
TWLO daily MACD crossed downTWLO 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $206.78.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$206.78。
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 7, 2026
TWLO took relative-strength leadershipTWLO 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $211.97.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$211.97。
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
TWLO daily MACD crossed upTWLO 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $209.31.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$209.31。
Jun 30, 2026
TWLO took relative-strength leadershipTWLO 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $206.33.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$206.33。
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 26, 2026
TWLO StochRSI turned up from oversoldTWLO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $191.57.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$191.57。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 244 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.27
Value价值
-0.8
Profitability盈利能力
-0.3
Quality质量
+0.6
Investment资本投入
+0.6
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.3
Low volatility低波动
-1.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.7
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.9
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.0
Company Profile公司档案
Twilio Inc. is an American cloud communications company based in San Francisco, California, which provides programmable communication tools for making and receiving phone calls, sending and receiving text messages, and performing other communication functions using its web service APIs.TwilioInc.是一家美国云通信公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山，通过其网络服务API提供用于拨打和接听电话、发送和接收短信以及执行其他通信功能的可编程通信工具。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。