Tractor Supply · Consumer Disc.
TSCO
$30.51
Tractor Supply Company, founded in 1938, is an American chain store that sells home improvement, agriculture, lawn and garden maintenance, livestock, equine and pet care equipment and supplies. It caters to farmers, ranchers, pet owners, and landowners.TractorSupplyCompany成立于1938年，是一家美国连锁店，销售家装、农业、草坪和花园维护、牲畜、马匹和宠物护理设备及用品，面向农民、牧场主、宠物主和土地所有者。
Quality compounder优质复利股
Large cap大盘
$16B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Trend intact — hold. Late in the cycle, so don't add here; a pullback is due.趋势完好——持有。已处周期晚期，此处不宜加仓；回调即将到来。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$30.51
50.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 50.5%
Market Cap市值
$16B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
14.7x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.40
Moves about 0.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-23 (4d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
68th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.5% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | TSCO | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.3% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 1.8 points跑赢指数 1.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +2.6% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 2.0 points跑赢指数 2.0 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -31.7% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 36.4 points落后指数 36.4 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -39.4% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 47.2 points落后指数 47.2 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -39.2% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 48.3 points落后指数 48.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -45.2% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 64.6 points落后指数 64.6 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-0.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-32.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
68th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$30.33
Don't chase above不追高于
$30.51
Stop止损
$29.58
Hold — don't add here持有 — 此处不宜加仓
Earnings财务业绩
4
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-23
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | TSCO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 14.67x | 20.23 | 68% |
| P/B市净率 | 6.23x | 2.97 | 24% |
| P/S市销率 | 1.04x | 1.23 | 53% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 6.82% | 4.53 | 72% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.61% | 5.69 | 40% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.25% | 4.31 | 26% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 9.00x | 11.48 | 64% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 21.71x | 16.53 | 35% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 7.9%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -20.2%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
42.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
10.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.80 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.34 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $361.3M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $57.1M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -1.0% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.1)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 50% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 50% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.40×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Retail theme — #24 of 46 themes「零售」主题 — 46 个主题中第 24 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +10.8%空头仓位变动 +10.8%
Technical技术面
TSCO weekly MACD crossed upTSCO 周线MACD上穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.92%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.53%
Call wall看涨密集区
$32
Put wall看跌密集区
$30
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$25
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-6.0%
Flow资金流向
$1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 21 fresh positions; P/C 0.32; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；21个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.32；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$12.0M net (0 buyers, 5 sellers)-$12.0M 净值（0 买家，5 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
RALLY ON
UPTREND
Jul 17, 2026
TSCO weekly MACD crossed upTSCO 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 15, 2026
TSCO broke down vs the marketTSCO 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $30.17.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$30.17。
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
TSCO broke down vs the marketTSCO 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $29.58.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$29.58。
Jul 6, 2026
TSCO broke down vs the marketTSCO 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $30.22.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$30.22。
Jun 25, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 25, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 22, 2026
TSCO broke down vs the marketTSCO 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $29.81.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$29.81。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 105 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.25
Value价值
-0.1
Profitability盈利能力
+1.1
Quality质量
+0.6
Investment资本投入
-0.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.5
Low volatility低波动
+0.5
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.6
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.8
Company Profile公司档案
Tractor Supply Company, founded in 1938, is an American chain store that sells home improvement, agriculture, lawn and garden maintenance, livestock, equine and pet care equipment and supplies. It caters to farmers, ranchers, pet owners, and landowners.TractorSupplyCompany成立于1938年，是一家美国连锁店，销售家装、农业、草坪和花园维护、牲畜、马匹和宠物护理设备及用品，面向农民、牧场主、宠物主和土地所有者。
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。