Talen Energy · Utilities
TLN
$372.37
Talen Energy Corporation is an independent power producer and energy infrastructure company.TalenEnergyCorporation是一家独立电力生产商和能源基础设施公司。
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
Large cap大盘
$17B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~12+ trading days. Wait for support t这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 12+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$372.37
16.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 16.5%
Market Cap市值
$17B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
1.93
Moves about 1.9x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
46
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
67th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
5.6% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | TLN | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.5% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 2.0 points落后指数 2.0 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -9.1% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 9.7 points落后指数 9.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.9% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 2.8 points落后指数 2.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +0.2% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 7.6 points落后指数 7.6 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -6.1% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 15.2 points落后指数 15.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +41.0% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 21.6 points跑赢指数 21.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +619.6% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 550.2 points跑赢指数 550.2 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
46
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-1.6% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+0.5% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
67th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$357.75
Don't chase above不追高于
$372.40
Stop止损
$360.80
Wait for the pullback等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -9.9% (20d)财报后漂移：-9.9%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | TLN | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 15.57x | 2.06 | 0% |
| P/S市销率 | 6.59x | 3.01 | 0% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -1.29% | 4.41 | 2% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.56% | -2.94 | 94% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.61% | 2.81 | 9% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 122.41x | 12.72 | 0% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 28.07x | 39.80 | 67% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
-20.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
-2.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 32.39 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.28 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $103.0M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $526.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.6% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 2/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.2)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 24% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 24% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.93×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.9× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍
Financial Health财务健康
2/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Power & Grid Buildout theme — #33 of 46 themes「电力与电网」主题 — 46 个主题中第 33 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
TLN reclaimed its 200-day averageTLN 收复200日均线
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.06%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±9.08%
Call wall看涨密集区
$390
Put wall看跌密集区
$330
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$355
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.0%
Flow资金流向
$11M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 39 fresh positions; P/C 0.34; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +3,903); ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $11M；0DTE占0%；39个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.34；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +3,903）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sachem Head Capital | D | Adding加仓 | 11.9% | 2026-03-31 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Adding加仓 | 4.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Oaktree Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 3.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
BOTTOM WATCH
NEARING A LOW
Jul 17, 2026
TLN reclaimed its 200-day averageTLN 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $372.37.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$372.37。
Jul 16, 2026
TLN lost its 200-day averageTLN 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $368.29.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$368.29。
Jul 16, 2026
TLN daily MACD crossed downTLN 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $368.29.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$368.29。
Jul 15, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 15, 2026
TLN daily MACD crossed upTLN 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $400.12.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$400.12。
Jul 14, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 13, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 10, 2026
TLN StochRSI turned up from oversoldTLN StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $385.80.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$385.80。
Jul 9, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
TLN reclaimed its 200-day averageTLN 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $384.44.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$384.44。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -1.42
Value价值
-1.1
Quality质量
-0.8
Investment资本投入
-3.0
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.9
Low volatility低波动
-1.3
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.4
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.0
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.7
Company Profile公司档案
Talen Energy Corporation is an independent power producer and energy infrastructure company.TalenEnergyCorporation是一家独立电力生产商和能源基础设施公司。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for power & grid buildout云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——电力与电网建设的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。