Timken · Industrials
TKR
$137.78
The Timken Company is a global manufacturer of engineered bearings and industrial motion products. Headquartered in North Canton, Ohio, the company operates from 45 countries.TheTimkenCompany是一家全球性的工程轴承和工业运动产品制造商。总部位于俄亥俄州北坎顿，公司在45个国家运营。
Cyclical周期股
Mid cap中盘
$10B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the 3-day/weekly momentum has crosse筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且3 日/周线动量已向下交叉——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$137.78
5.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 5.2%
Market Cap市值
$10B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
33.2x
29.9x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.51
Moves about 1.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
42th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.9% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | TKR | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.3% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 1.8 points跑赢指数 1.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -1.2% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 1.8 points落后指数 1.8 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +28.4% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 23.7 points跑赢指数 23.7 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +48.2% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 40.4 points跑赢指数 40.4 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +60.7% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 51.6 points跑赢指数 51.6 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +76.8% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 57.4 points跑赢指数 57.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +54.4% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 15.0 points落后指数 15.0 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
52
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+4.8% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+36.0% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
42th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$135.25
Don't chase above不追高于
$137.80
Stop止损
$137.10
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being raised — 10 analysts预期上调 — 10 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | TKR | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 33.22x | 29.89 | 42% |
| P/B市净率 | 3.01x | 3.90 | 62% |
| P/S市销率 | 2.09x | 2.21 | 54% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.01% | 3.10 | 47% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.24% | 3.81 | 58% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.62% | 2.29 | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 14.42x | 16.39 | 60% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 23.59x | 25.50 | 55% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 5.5%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 2.0%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
9.1%Return on Equity股本回报率
4.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 1.99 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.82 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $57.4M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $28.3M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.7% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (3.5)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 55% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 55% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.51×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$8.1M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$8.1M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 6, 2026
TKR took relative-strength leadershipTKR 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $142.36.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$142.36。
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
TKR made a new 52-week highTKR 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $145.32.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$145.32。
Jun 25, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 25, 2026
TKR made a new 52-week highTKR 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $144.01.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$144.01。
Jun 23, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 23, 2026
TKR daily MACD crossed downTKR 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $137.64.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$137.64。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.09
Value价值
-0.3
Quality质量
-0.1
Investment资本投入
+0.3
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.6
Low volatility低波动
+0.3
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.9
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.3
Company Profile公司档案
The Timken Company is a global manufacturer of engineered bearings and industrial motion products. Headquartered in North Canton, Ohio, the company operates from 45 countries.TheTimkenCompany是一家全球性的工程轴承和工业运动产品制造商。总部位于俄亥俄州北坎顿，公司在45个国家运营。
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