STLD Steel Dynamics · $235.51 Leader · poor entry — wait for a base领先 · 入场点欠佳 — 等待筑底 Terminal终端 ↗

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Steel Dynamics · Materials

STLD

$235.51
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (SDI) is an American steel producer based in Fort Wayne, Indiana.SteelDynamics,Inc.(SDI)是一家美国钢铁生产商，总部位于印第安纳州韦恩堡。
Cyclical周期股 Large cap大盘 $34B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Leader · poor entry — wait for a base领先 · 入场点欠佳 — 等待筑底
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 220.39.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 220.39 下方。
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Price Chart价格图表

STEEL DYNAMICS 175.00 200.00 225.00 250.00 275.00 235.51 2026-03-10 2026-04-06 2026-04-30 2026-05-26 2026-06-22 2026-07-17 50 SMA VOLUME 4.5MVOL MACD -4.409 MASTERMIND STLDDAILY mastermind-x.comResearch dossier · regenerated nightly© 2026 Mastermind
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$235.51
16.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 16.5%
Market Cap市值
$34B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
28.8x
28.6x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
12.5x
EPS每股收益 $8.18
Beta贝塔
1.13
Moves about 1.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.1 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
0.90%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-20 (1d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
93th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.5% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 STLD S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +3.1% -1.5% Beat the index by 4.6 points跑赢指数 4.6 个百分点
1 Month近1月 -12.6% +0.6% Lagged the index by 13.2 points落后指数 13.2 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +17.6% +4.7% Beat the index by 12.9 points跑赢指数 12.9 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +36.1% +7.8% Beat the index by 28.3 points跑赢指数 28.3 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +34.2% +9.1% Beat the index by 25.1 points跑赢指数 25.1 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +81.3% +19.4% Beat the index by 61.9 points跑赢指数 61.9 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +125.4% +69.4% Beat the index by 56.0 points跑赢指数 56.0 个百分点
5 Years近5年 +323.1% +83.9% Beat the index by 239.2 points跑赢指数 239.2 个百分点

Technicals技术面

Active signals活跃信号
Long-term Rising Trend1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralRSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Up
RSI (14)RSI（14） 47 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -4.1% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +22.1% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX） 25 Trending趋势中
Volatility rank波动率分位 93th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$232.80
Don't chase above不追高于
$235.50
Stop止损
$220.40
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

1
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-20

Estimates being raised — 7 analysts预期上调 — 7 位分析师

Post-earnings drift: -4.7% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.7%（20日）

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 STLD Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 28.79x 28.57
48%
P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） 12.5x — —
P/B市净率 3.81x 2.82
32%
P/S市销率 1.88x 1.64
40%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 3.47% 2.96
62%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 1.47% 3.23
28%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 3.49% 2.70
69%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 18.53x 12.20
27%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 68.06x 25.03
12%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$9.6B
2020
$18.4B
2021
$22.3B
2022
$18.8B
2023
$17.5B
2024
$18.2B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$2.59
2020
$15.56
2021
$20.92
2022
$14.64
2023
$9.84
2024
$7.99
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 25.3%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
-$211.0M
2020
$1.2B
2021
$3.6B
2022
$1.9B
2023
-$23.5M
2024
$501.5M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
13.2%
Operating margin营业利润率
8.1%
Net margin净利率
6.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
8.0%
13.2%Return on Equity股本回报率
7.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.70
Current ratio流动比率3.06
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$900.9M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$69.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-4.1%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (5.8) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 35% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 35% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.13×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.1× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.1 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
0.90%
Pays a dividend (0.90% yield)有分红（收益率 0.90%）

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Materials (Equal-Weight) theme — #26 of 46 themes「材料（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 26 位
Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 STLD daily MACD crossed upSTLD 日线MACD上穿

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡

Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.12%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.98%
Call wall看涨密集区
$250
Put wall看跌密集区
$210
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.5%
Skew: 偏斜：balanced

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$1.3M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$1.3M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum just crossed down). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量刚刚向下交叉）。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 16, 2026
STLD daily MACD crossed upSTLD 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $234.98.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$234.98。
Jul 9, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 8, 2026
STLD StochRSI turned up from oversoldSTLD StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $228.76.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$228.76。
Jul 6, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 3, 2026
STLD weekly MACD crossed downSTLD 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 2, 2026
STLD printed a daily-cycle lowSTLD 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $220.39.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$220.39。
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 2543 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.26
Value价值
-0.4
Profitability盈利能力
-1.0
Quality质量
-0.2
Investment资本投入
-0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.1
Low volatility低波动
+0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.4
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.5
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.9

Company Profile公司档案

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (SDI) is an American steel producer based in Fort Wayne, Indiana.SteelDynamics,Inc.(SDI)是一家美国钢铁生产商，总部位于印第安纳州韦恩堡。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Receivables stretch
  • Inventory build
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