POST Post Holdings · $86.86 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 Terminal终端 ↗

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Post Holdings · Staples

POST

$86.86
Post Holdings, Inc. is an American consumer packaged goods holding company headquartered in St.PostHoldings,Inc.是一家美国消费品包装控股公司，总部位于圣路易斯。
Distressed困境股 Mid cap中盘 $4B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 84.7.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 84.7 下方。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$86.86
24.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 24.2%
Market Cap市值
$4B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
12.4x
24.1x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.06
Moves about 0.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.1 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
44
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
83th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
12.3% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 POST S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +0.7% -1.5% Beat the index by 2.2 points跑赢指数 2.2 个百分点
1 Month近1月 -2.4% +0.6% Lagged the index by 3.0 points落后指数 3.0 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -14.5% +4.7% Lagged the index by 19.2 points落后指数 19.2 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -12.6% +7.8% Lagged the index by 20.4 points落后指数 20.4 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -12.8% +9.1% Lagged the index by 21.9 points落后指数 21.9 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -19.2% +19.4% Lagged the index by 38.6 points落后指数 38.6 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +1.0% +69.4% Lagged the index by 68.4 points落后指数 68.4 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 44 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -6.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -13.3% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 83th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$86.60
Don't chase above不追高于
$86.86
Stop止损
$84.70
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 POST Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 12.41x 24.10
88%
P/B市净率 1.20x 3.38
85%
P/S市销率 0.51x 1.28
76%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 8.06% 3.76
91%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 11.72% 4.71
89%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 8.62x 12.39
77%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 8.53x 21.12
87%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$5.7B
2019
$5.7B
2020
$6.2B
2021
$5.9B
2022
$7.0B
2023
$8.2B
2024
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 7.5%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$1.66
2019
$0.01
2020
$2.38
2021
$12.09
2022
$4.82
2023
$5.51
2024
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 27.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$414.1M
2019
$391.0M
2020
$395.7M
2021
$127.3M
2022
$447.3M
2023
$488.1M
2024
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
28.7%
Operating margin营业利润率
9.8%
Net margin净利率
4.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
12.2%
9.7%Return on Equity股本回报率
2.6%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA5.47
Current ratio流动比率1.67
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$443.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$81.6M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-15.1%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.4) Watch关注

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 83% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 83% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.06×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.1× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.1 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Short interest changed -12.9%空头仓位变动 -12.9%
Technical技术面 POST daily MACD crossed upPOST 日线MACD上穿

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$1.8M net (1 buyers, 3 sellers)-$1.8M 净值（1 买家，3 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 16, 2026
POST daily MACD crossed upPOST 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $87.89.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$87.89。
Jul 14, 2026
TOPPING → DOWNTREND做顶中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 13, 2026
DOWNTREND → TOPPING下跌趋势 → 做顶中
SELL SETUP卖出预备
Jul 9, 2026
POST daily MACD crossed downPOST 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $84.70.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$84.70。
Jul 8, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 8, 2026
POST made a new 52-week lowPOST 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $85.91.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$85.91。
Jul 7, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 6, 2026
POST broke down vs the marketPOST 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $88.50.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$88.50。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 268 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.19
Value价值
+1.6
Profitability盈利能力
-0.8
Quality质量
-1.0
Investment资本投入
+0.4
Low volatility低波动
+0.8
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+1.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.5

Company Profile公司档案

Post Holdings, Inc. is an American consumer packaged goods holding company headquartered in St.PostHoldings,Inc.是一家美国消费品包装控股公司，总部位于圣路易斯。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Receivables stretch
  • Capital intensity rising
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