Netflix · Comm. Services
NFLX
$68.95
Netflix is an American subscription video on-demand over-the-top streaming television service. The service primarily distributes original and acquired films and television shows from various genres.Netflix是一家美国订阅型视频点播、OTT流媒体电视服务。该服务主要发行各种类型的原创及授权电影和电视剧。
Broken growth成长受损
Mega cap超大盘
$291B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Avoid — downtrend回避 — 下行趋势
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$68.95
45.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 45.9%
Market Cap市值
$291B
Heavy volume成交量大幅偏高
P/E Ratio市盈率
26.5x
34.1x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
18.1x
EPS每股收益 $2.60
Beta贝塔
0.31
Moves about 0.3x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.3 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
31
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-16 (-3d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
92th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.5% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | NFLX | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -6.0% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 4.5 points落后指数 4.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -10.4% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 11.0 points落后指数 11.0 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -29.1% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 33.8 points落后指数 33.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -21.6% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 29.4 points落后指数 29.4 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -24.2% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 33.3 points落后指数 33.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -45.9% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 65.3 points落后指数 65.3 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +45.2% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 24.2 points落后指数 24.2 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +30.0% | +83.9% | Lagged the index by 53.9 points落后指数 53.9 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
MA Sell (7)Bollinger Breakout DownShort-term Falling TrendLong-term Falling Trend1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)
RSI (14)RSI（14）
31
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-14.4% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-26.4% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
32
Strong trend趋势强劲
Volatility rank波动率分位
92th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$68.95
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -16.0% (20d)财报后漂移：-16.0%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | NFLX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 26.51x | 34.11 | 55% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 18.1x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 10.94x | 2.64 | 9% |
| P/S市销率 | 6.44x | 1.75 | 12% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.77% | 2.33 | 68% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.25% | 5.94 | 33% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 3.14% | 4.02 | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 21.64x | 11.71 | 16% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 30.77x | 11.84 | 19% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 12.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -16.1%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
41.3%Return on Equity股本回报率
19.8%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.32 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.19 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $9.1B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $368.4M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -1.3% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (8.7)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 25% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 25% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.31×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.3× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.3 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Communication Services (Equal-Weight) theme — #37 of 46 themes「通信服务（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 37 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NFLX made a new 52-week lowNFLX 创52周新低
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.24%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.00%
Call wall看涨密集区
$74
Put wall看跌密集区
$65
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$74
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
1.4%
Skew: 偏斜：greed
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$318.6M net (0 buyers, 7 sellers)-$318.6M 净值（0 买家，7 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenlea Lane Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 7.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | New position新建仓 | 0.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | Holding持有 | 1.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Coatue Management | A | trimtrim | 2.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Light Street Capital | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 17, 2026
NFLX made a new 52-week lowNFLX 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $68.95.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$68.95。
Jul 10, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 9, 2026
NFLX broke down vs the marketNFLX 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $75.47.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$75.47。
Jul 6, 2026
NFLX broke down vs the marketNFLX 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $76.02.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$76.02。
Jul 2, 2026
NFLX daily MACD crossed upNFLX 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $77.65.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$77.65。
Jul 1, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 30, 2026
NFLX RSI reached oversoldNFLX RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $71.40.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$71.40。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 2035 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.17
Value价值
-0.8
Quality质量
-0.3
Investment资本投入
+0.3
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.2
Low volatility低波动
+0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.7
Earnings quality盈利质量
-1.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.1
Company Profile公司档案
Netflix is an American subscription video on-demand over-the-top streaming television service. The service primarily distributes original and acquired films and television shows from various genres.Netflix是一家美国订阅型视频点播、OTT流媒体电视服务。该服务主要发行各种类型的原创及授权电影和电视剧。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。