MPC
Marathon Petroleum
·
$312.60
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Terminal终端 ↗
Marathon Petroleum · Energy
MPC
$312.60
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. The company was a wholly owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil until a corporate spin-off in 2011.马拉松石油公司是一家美国石油精炼、营销和运输公司，总部位于俄亥俄州芬德利。该公司在2011年从马拉松石油公司剥离前是其全资子公司。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$94B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought (daily RSI 78, 3-day 75 & 已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（已超买（日线 RSI 78、3 日 75 与周线 75））。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$312.60
0.0% below 52-week high0.0% below 52-week high
Market Cap市值
$94B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
23.2x
20.8x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
12.4x
EPS每股收益 $13.46
Beta贝塔
-0.06
Moves about -0.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 -0.1 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
1.25%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
78
Overbought超买区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
39th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.4% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | MPC | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +10.2% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 11.7 points跑赢指数 11.7 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +27.8% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 27.2 points跑赢指数 27.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +46.8% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 42.1 points跑赢指数 42.1 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +79.6% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 71.8 points跑赢指数 71.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +91.0% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 81.9 points跑赢指数 81.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +83.0% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 63.6 points跑赢指数 63.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +178.3% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 108.9 points跑赢指数 108.9 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +560.9% | +83.9% | Beat the index by 477.0 points跑赢指数 477.0 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
Short-term Rising TrendLong-term Rising Trend1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral
RSI (14)RSI（14）
78
Overbought超买区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+19.5% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+45.8% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
32
Strong trend趋势强劲
Volatility rank波动率分位
39th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$285.70
Don't chase above不追高于
$312.60
Stop止损
$242.90
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | MPC | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 23.22x | 20.82 | 42% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 12.4x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 5.43x | 1.68 | 8% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.71x | 1.93 | 88% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.31% | 4.36 | 49% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 5.07% | 5.01 | 54% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.93% | 3.25 | 77% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 8.03x | 8.28 | 55% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 19.71x | 19.68 | 46% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
23.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
4.8%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.11 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.26 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $3.5B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $160.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -6.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/7
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (3.6)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 49% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 49% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
-0.06×
0.21×3×
Has tended to move opposite the market (factor-adjusted)经因子调整后常与大盘反向波动
Financial Health财务健康
6/7
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
1.25%
Pays a dividend (1.25% yield)有分红（收益率 1.25%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
US Energy Complex theme — #2 of 46 themes「美国能源综合」主题 — 46 个主题中第 2 位
Macro宏观
Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
MPC made a new 52-week highMPC 创52周新高
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.78%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.21%
Call wall看涨密集区
$320
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
0.6%
Flow资金流向
$16M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 14 fresh positions; P/C 0.18; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +3,393); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $16M；0DTE占0%；14个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.18；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +3,393）；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$2.1M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$2.1M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
TOP WATCH
NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
MPC made a new 52-week highMPC 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $305.85.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$305.85。
Jul 13, 2026
MPC RSI reached overboughtMPC RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $296.88.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$296.88。
Jul 9, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 8, 2026
MPC took relative-strength leadershipMPC 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $280.68.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$280.68。
Jul 8, 2026
MPC made a new 52-week highMPC 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $280.68.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$280.68。
Jul 6, 2026
MPC made a new 52-week highMPC 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $268.99.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$268.99。
Jul 1, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
MPC daily MACD crossed upMPC 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $264.87.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$264.87。
Jun 25, 2026
DOWNTREND → UPTREND下跌趋势 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 25, 2026
MPC StochRSI turned up from oversoldMPC StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $253.56.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$253.56。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 1224 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.17
Value价值
-0.1
Quality质量
+0.1
Investment资本投入
+0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.2
Low volatility低波动
+0.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+1.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.8
Company Profile公司档案
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. The company was a wholly owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil until a corporate spin-off in 2011.马拉松石油公司是一家美国石油精炼、营销和运输公司，总部位于俄亥俄州芬德利。该公司在2011年从马拉松石油公司剥离前是其全资子公司。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。