Medtronic · Health Care
MDT
$83.20
Medtronic plc is an American-Irish medical device company. The company's legal and executive headquarters are in Ireland, while its operational headquarters are in Minneapolis, Minnesota.美敦力公司是一家美爱尔兰医疗设备公司。其法律和行政总部位于爱尔兰，而运营总部位于明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯。
Mixed profile混合特征
Large cap大盘
$107B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Confirmed cycle low — the entry window is open now, with a clear exit if it closes back below 77.44.周期低点已确认——入场窗口现已开启，若收盘重新跌破 77.44 则明确离场。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$83.20
19.1% below 52-week high低于52周高点 19.1%
Market Cap市值
$107B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
22.2x
28.9x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
13.0x
EPS每股收益 $3.74
Beta贝塔
0.23
Moves about 0.2x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.2 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
3.46%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
56
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
96th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
1.5% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | MDT | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.8% | -1.5% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +7.4% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 6.8 points跑赢指数 6.8 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -2.6% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 7.3 points落后指数 7.3 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -12.5% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 20.3 points落后指数 20.3 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -11.9% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 21.0 points落后指数 21.0 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -4.0% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 23.4 points落后指数 23.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +6.0% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 63.4 points落后指数 63.4 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | -22.6% | +83.9% | Lagged the index by 106.5 points落后指数 106.5 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
Double Top (Long-term)1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralInsider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis)
RSI (14)RSI（14）
56
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+5.5% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-6.8% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
16
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
96th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$82.02
Don't chase above不追高于
$84.14
Stop止损
$77.44
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: +3.8% (20d)财报后漂移：+3.8%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | MDT | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 22.24x | 28.92 | 68% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 13.0x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 2.18x | 3.52 | 71% |
| P/S市销率 | 2.94x | 3.02 | 51% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.50% | 2.72 | 77% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.86% | 3.94 | 61% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.38% | 1.89 | 82% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 12.19x | 18.21 | 81% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 20.59x | 22.42 | 55% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 2.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 7.9%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
9.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
5.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 0.07 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.85 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $1.0B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $429.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.0% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.7)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 66% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 66% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.23×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.2× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.2 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/8
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
3.46%
Pays a dividend (3.46% yield)有分红（收益率 3.46%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Health Care (Equal-Weight) theme — #6 of 46 themes「医疗保健（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 6 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
MDT daily MACD crossed upMDT 日线MACD上穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.73%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±3.88%
Call wall看涨密集区
$85
Put wall看跌密集区
$75
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$76
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-1.9%
Skew: 偏斜：balanced
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$8.2M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$8.2M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
FRESH BUY
BUY ZONE
Jul 16, 2026
MDT daily MACD crossed upMDT 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $83.56.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$83.56。
Jul 15, 2026
MDT daily MACD crossed downMDT 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $80.47.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$80.47。
Jul 14, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 13, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 9, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 8, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BUY ZONE未确认转向 → 买入区
BUY买入
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.22
Value价值
-0.1
Quality质量
-0.3
Investment资本投入
+0.4
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.1
Low volatility低波动
+1.0
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.8
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.2
Company Profile公司档案
Medtronic plc is an American-Irish medical device company. The company's legal and executive headquarters are in Ireland, while its operational headquarters are in Minneapolis, Minnesota.美敦力公司是一家美爱尔兰医疗设备公司。其法律和行政总部位于爱尔兰，而运营总部位于明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) accelerating (+33% YoY to ~$0B, 0.0× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）加速（同比+33%，约 $0B，覆盖营收 0.0 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
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