Harley-Davidson · Consumer Disc.
HOG
$26.58
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is an American motorcycle manufacturer and lifestyle brand headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.哈雷戴维森公司是美国摩托车制造商及生活方式品牌，总部位于威斯康星州密尔沃基。
Cyclical周期股
Mid cap中盘
$3B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
Confirmed cycle low — the entry window is open now, with a clear exit if it closes back below 24.15.周期低点已确认——入场窗口现已开启，若收盘重新跌破 24.15 则明确离场。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$26.58
11.6% below 52-week high低于52周高点 11.6%
Market Cap市值
$3B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
8.8x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.76
Moves about 0.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
44th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
15.3% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | HOG | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +5.7% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 7.2 points跑赢指数 7.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +4.6% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 4.0 points跑赢指数 4.0 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +14.0% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 9.3 points跑赢指数 9.3 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +32.1% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 24.3 points跑赢指数 24.3 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +31.1% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 22.0 points跑赢指数 22.0 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +16.0% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 3.4 points落后指数 3.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | -20.1% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 89.5 points落后指数 89.5 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+7.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+17.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
44th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$26.18
Don't chase above不追高于
$26.90
Stop止损
$24.15
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29
Estimates being raised — 3 analysts预期上调 — 3 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | HOG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 8.76x | 20.23 | 91% |
| P/B市净率 | 0.94x | 2.97 | 90% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.66x | 1.23 | 69% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 11.41% | 4.53 | 92% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 13.99% | 5.69 | 92% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 11.90% | 4.31 | 92% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 4.20x | 11.48 | 94% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 7.15x | 16.53 | 91% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 2.0%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 208.2%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
10.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
4.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -1.11 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.10 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $353.3M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $31.7M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -10.2% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 8/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.2)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 87% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 87% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.76×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
8/9
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
HOG took relative-strength leadershipHOG 取得相对强弱领先
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$0.2M net (3 buyers, 3 sellers)-$0.2M 净值（3 买家，3 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
FRESH BUY
BUY ZONE
Jul 16, 2026
HOG took relative-strength leadershipHOG 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $26.81.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$26.81。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 15, 2026
HOG daily MACD crossed upHOG 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $25.95.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$25.95。
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 7, 2026
HOG took relative-strength leadershipHOG 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $25.89.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$25.89。
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 6, 2026
HOG StochRSI turned up from oversoldHOG StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $25.32.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$25.32。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 1.22
Value价值
+1.8
Quality质量
-0.0
Investment资本投入
+2.4
Shareholder payout股东回报
+2.0
Low volatility低波动
-0.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.1
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.4
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.1
Company Profile公司档案
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is an American motorcycle manufacturer and lifestyle brand headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.哈雷戴维森公司是美国摩托车制造商及生活方式品牌，总部位于威斯康星州密尔沃基。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。