FIX
Comfort Systems USA
·
$1674.06
Strong name · wrong tape — wait for a base强势个股 · 趋势不利 — 等待筑底
Terminal终端 ↗
Comfort Systems USA · Industrials
FIX
$1674.06
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is an American company that provides mechanical and electrical contracting services, primarily HVAC, plumbing, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring and fire protection, and installation and servicing of electrical systems.ComfortSystemsUSA,Inc.是一家美国公司，提供机械和电气承包服务，主要包括暖通空调、管道、管道系统及控制、非现场施工、监控和消防，以及电气系统的安装和维护。
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
Large cap大盘
$59B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Strong name · wrong tape — wait for a base强势个股 · 趋势不利 — 等待筑底
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$1674.06
19.0% below 52-week high低于52周高点 19.0%
Market Cap市值
$59B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
57.6x
29.9x sector median
Beta贝塔
2.51
Moves about 2.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
41
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-23 (4d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
81th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.1% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | FIX | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -4.7% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 3.2 points落后指数 3.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -13.3% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 13.9 points落后指数 13.9 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.5% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 3.2 points落后指数 3.2 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +49.6% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 41.8 points跑赢指数 41.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +67.0% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 57.9 points跑赢指数 57.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +204.8% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 185.4 points跑赢指数 185.4 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
41
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-10.4% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+23.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
81th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$1674.10
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
4
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-23
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | FIX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 57.59x | 29.89 | 15% |
| P/B市净率 | 24.05x | 3.90 | 3% |
| P/S市销率 | 32.16x | 2.21 | 0% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.74% | 3.10 | 23% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.75% | 3.81 | 17% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.48% | 2.29 | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 42.16x | 16.39 | 7% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 57.09x | 25.50 | 11% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 26.1%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 47.8%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
41.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
15.9%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.61 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.21 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $216.0M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $21.8M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -1.1% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 7/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (11.6)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 8% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 8% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.51×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
7/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Strong financial health财务健康状况良好
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #15 of 46 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 15 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.96%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±11.09%
Call wall看涨密集区
$1850
Put wall看跌密集区
$1540
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-7.7%
Flow资金流向
$13M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 15 fresh positions; P/C 0.99; ~leans bearish (direction approx)成交权利金 $13M；0DTE占0%；15个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.99；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$82.2M net (0 buyers, 11 sellers)-$82.2M 净值（0 买家，11 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 13, 2026
FIX StochRSI turned up from oversoldFIX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $1,732.03.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$1,732.03。
Jul 9, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 7, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 2, 2026
TOPPING → UNCONFIRMED TURN做顶中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 1, 2026
UPTREND → TOPPING上涨趋势 → 做顶中
SELL SETUP卖出预备
Jul 1, 2026
FIX daily MACD crossed downFIX 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $1,865.15.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$1,865.15。
Jun 30, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 26, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 26, 2026
FIX weekly MACD crossed downFIX 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 118 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.90
Value价值
-1.1
Profitability盈利能力
-1.4
Quality质量
+0.9
Investment资本投入
-1.7
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.9
Low volatility低波动
-1.2
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-2.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.3
Company Profile公司档案
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is an American company that provides mechanical and electrical contracting services, primarily HVAC, plumbing, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring and fire protection, and installation and servicing of electrical systems.ComfortSystemsUSA,Inc.是一家美国公司，提供机械和电气承包服务，主要包括暖通空调、管道、管道系统及控制、非现场施工、监控和消防，以及电气系统的安装和维护。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for power & grid buildout云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——电力与电网建设的需求来源
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。