Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
The daily turn is already in — a low formed @ 12.6 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the wee日线转向已经完成——低点于近期形成 @ 12.6，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$13.93
17.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 17.4%
Market Cap市值
$3B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
0.63
Moves about 0.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
63
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-05 (17d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
28th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
7.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | DNOW | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +6.7% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 8.2 points跑赢指数 8.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +3.0% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 2.4 points跑赢指数 2.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +16.6% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 11.9 points跑赢指数 11.9 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -2.9% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 10.7 points落后指数 10.7 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +4.3% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 4.8 points落后指数 4.8 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -6.1% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 25.5 points落后指数 25.5 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +25.4% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 44.0 points落后指数 44.0 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
63
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+5.1% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+3.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
28th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$13.77
Don't chase above不追高于
$14.05
Stop止损
$12.60
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
17
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-05
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | DNOW | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 1.16x | 3.90 | 96% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.92x | 2.21 | 79% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -3.43% | 3.10 | 4% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 5.17% | 3.81 | 67% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.43% | 2.29 | 33% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 19.35x | 25.50 | 64% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 11.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
-4.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
-2.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.34 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $37.0M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $29.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +76.2% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.7)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 81% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 81% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.63×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
DNOW took relative-strength leadershipDNOW 取得相对强弱领先
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | C | New position新建仓 | 0.8% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 17, 2026
DNOW took relative-strength leadershipDNOW 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $13.93.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$13.93。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 15, 2026
DNOW reclaimed its 200-day averageDNOW 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $13.60.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$13.60。
Jul 15, 2026
DNOW daily MACD crossed upDNOW 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $13.60.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$13.60。
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 8, 2026
DOWNTREND → BOTTOMING下跌趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
DNOW StochRSI turned up from oversoldDNOW StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $12.90.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$12.90。
Jul 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → DOWNTREND筑底中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 7, 2026
DNOW broke down vs the marketDNOW 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $12.66.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$12.66。
Jul 6, 2026
DOWNTREND → BOTTOMING下跌趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
BOTTOMING → DOWNTREND筑底中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 2, 2026
DNOW printed a daily-cycle lowDNOW 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $12.60.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$12.60。
Jul 2, 2026
DNOW broke down vs the marketDNOW 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $12.60.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$12.60。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.67
Value价值
+0.4
Profitability盈利能力
-1.1
Quality质量
+0.4
Investment资本投入
-3.0
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.7
Low volatility低波动
-0.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.3
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.7
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.0
Company Profile公司档案
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Inventory build
- Capital intensity rising
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。