COF Capital One · $208.03 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高;等待回撤 Terminal终端
Capital One · Financials

COF

$208.03
Capital One Financial Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Tysons, Virginia, with operations in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.第一资本金融公司是一家美国银行控股公司,总部位于弗吉尼亚州泰森斯,业务覆盖美国、加拿大和英国。
Financial金融股 Large cap大盘 $130B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高;等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成,目前价格已拉伸(动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下)。不要追高;等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Price Chart价格图表

CAPITAL ONE 180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 208.03 2026-03-10 2026-04-06 2026-04-30 2026-05-26 2026-06-22 2026-07-17 50 SMA VOLUME 10.0MVOL MACD 4.137 MASTERMIND COFDAILY mastermind-x.comResearch dossier · regenerated nightly© 2026 Mastermind
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$208.03
18.7% below 52-week high低于52周高点 18.7%
Market Cap市值
$130B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
53.0x
15.0x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
8.6x
EPS每股收益 $3.92
Beta贝塔
1.37
Moves about 1.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
1.54%
RSI (14)RSI(14)
59
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-28 (9d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
59th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
1.9% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 COF S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +3.2% -1.5% Beat the index by 4.7 points跑赢指数 4.7 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +3.6% +0.6% Beat the index by 3.0 points跑赢指数 3.0 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +1.2% +4.7% Lagged the index by 3.5 points落后指数 3.5 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -12.3% +7.8% Lagged the index by 20.1 points落后指数 20.1 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -15.4% +9.1% Lagged the index by 24.5 points落后指数 24.5 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -3.2% +19.4% Lagged the index by 22.6 points落后指数 22.6 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +88.1% +69.4% Beat the index by 18.7 points跑赢指数 18.7 个百分点
5 Years近5年 +44.8% +83.9% Lagged the index by 39.1 points落后指数 39.1 个百分点

Technicals技术面

Active signals活跃信号
1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralInsider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis)Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud
RSI (14)RSI(14) 59 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +7.8% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +0.8% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度(ADX) 20 Trending趋势中
Volatility rank波动率分位 59th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$203.55
Don't chase above不追高于
$208.00
Stop止损
$182.00
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

9
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-28

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 COF Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率(历史) 53.01x 14.99
3%
P/E (forward)市盈率(预测) 8.6x
P/B市净率 1.14x 1.52
79%
P/S市销率 2.43x 2.87
56%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 1.89% 6.58
7%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 4.32% 3.91
56%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$28.5B
2020
$30.4B
2021
$34.2B
2022
$36.8B
2023
$39.1B
2024
$53.4B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 13.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$5.18
2020
$26.94
2021
$17.91
2022
$11.95
2023
$11.59
2024
$4.03
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -4.9%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$16.0B
2020
$11.6B
2021
$12.9B
2022
$19.6B
2023
$17.0B
2024
$26.1B
2025
Margins利润率
Net margin净利率
4.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
51.9%
2.2%Return on Equity股本回报率
0.4%Return on Assets资产回报率
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购(TTM)$4.1B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$776.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化(1年)+64.0%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/6 Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 46% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 46% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.37×
0.2
Moves about 1.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/6
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
1.54%
Pays a dividend (1.54% yield)有分红(收益率 1.54%)

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Payments & Fintech theme — #9 of 46 themes「支付与金融科技」主题 — 46 个主题中第 9 位
Macro宏观 Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 COF reclaimed its 200-day averageCOF 收复200日均线

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛,价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡

Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.34%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.22%
Call wall看涨密集区
$215
Put wall看跌密集区
$195
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$193
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-1.4%
Flow资金流向

$6M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 20 fresh positions; P/C 0.7; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +9,158); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $6M;0DTE占0%;20个新建仓;看跌看涨比 0.7;净新增看涨持仓(偏多)(ΔOI +9,158);≈偏看涨(方向近似)

Skew: 偏斜:balanced

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$78.3M net (0 buyers, 9 sellers)-$78.3M 净值(0 买家,9 卖家)
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
Soros Fund Management B New position新建仓 0.5% 2026-03-31
D1 Capital Partners A Adding加仓 1.8% 2026-03-31
Lone Pine Capital B Holding持有 3.3% 2026-03-31
Basswood Capital Management B Holding持有 1.7% 2026-03-31
Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) B Holding持有 0.5% 2026-03-31
Third Point (Loeb) B trimtrim 1.2% 2026-03-31
Viking Global (Halvorsen) B trimtrim 0.8% 2026-03-31
Giverny Capital C exitexit 0.0% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~24 day(s) ago @ 182.04) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发(摆动低点出现、动量转向上行),但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点(约 24 天前形成 @ 182.04)且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认:在垂直拉升之后,只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发,因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高,而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构(见顶偏早)——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 15, 2026
COF reclaimed its 200-day averageCOF 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $208.89.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$208.89。
Jul 15, 2026
COF daily MACD crossed upCOF 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $208.89.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂,仅作背景。$208.89。
Jul 14, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 13, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 10, 2026
COF StochRSI turned up from oversoldCOF StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $201.52.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$201.52。
Jul 8, 2026
COF daily MACD crossed downCOF 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $191.95.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂,仅作背景。$191.95。
Jul 6, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有

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Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.14
Value价值
+0.6
Quality质量
-0.2
Investment资本投入
-1.7
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.1
Low volatility低波动
+0.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.7
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.0

Company Profile公司档案

Capital One Financial Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Tysons, Virginia, with operations in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.第一资本金融公司是一家美国银行控股公司,总部位于弗吉尼亚州泰森斯,业务覆盖美国、加拿大和英国。
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