Commercial Metals · Materials
CMC
$66.41
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is a company that produces rebar and related construction materials headquartered in Irving, Texas.CommercialMetalsCompany（CMC）是一家生产钢筋及相关建筑材料的公司，总部位于得克萨斯州欧文市。
Cyclical周期股
Mid cap中盘
$7B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 60.12.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 60.12 下方。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$66.41
19.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 19.9%
Market Cap市值
$7B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
87.1x
28.6x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.42
Moves about 1.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-06-25 (-24d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
96th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.2% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | CMC | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +6.0% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 7.5 points跑赢指数 7.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -9.0% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 9.6 points落后指数 9.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +0.4% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 4.3 points落后指数 4.3 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -10.5% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 18.3 points落后指数 18.3 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -7.0% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 16.1 points落后指数 16.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +27.6% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 8.2 points跑赢指数 8.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +22.1% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 47.3 points落后指数 47.3 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-5.8% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-1.9% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
96th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$64.93
Don't chase above不追高于
$66.41
Stop止损
$60.12
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -5.7% (20d)财报后漂移：-5.7%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | CMC | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 87.08x | 28.57 | 4% |
| P/B市净率 | 1.71x | 2.82 | 65% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.15% | 2.96 | 29% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.24% | 3.23 | 62% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 3.80% | 2.70 | 72% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 23.61x | 25.03 | 53% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 7.3%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -20.4%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
2.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
0.9%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 2.78 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $198.8M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $37.1M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -2.6% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (3.8)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 44% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 44% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.42×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.4 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/9
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
CMC daily MACD crossed upCMC 日线MACD上穿
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$2.1M net (2 buyers, 2 sellers)-$2.1M 净值（2 买家，2 卖家）
Signal History信号历史
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE
UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 15, 2026
CMC daily MACD crossed upCMC 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $67.41.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$67.41。
Jul 10, 2026
CMC StochRSI turned up from oversoldCMC StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $62.64.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$62.64。
Jul 3, 2026
CMC weekly MACD crossed downCMC 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 1, 2026
CMC RSI reached oversoldCMC RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $61.01.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$61.01。
Jun 29, 2026
CMC lost its 200-day averageCMC 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $64.42.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$64.42。
Jun 29, 2026
CMC broke down vs the marketCMC 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $64.42.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$64.42。
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 17, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.20
Value价值
+0.2
Quality质量
+0.4
Investment资本投入
-1.7
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.1
Low volatility低波动
+0.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.8
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.5
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.8
Company Profile公司档案
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is a company that produces rebar and related construction materials headquartered in Irving, Texas.CommercialMetalsCompany（CMC）是一家生产钢筋及相关建筑材料的公司，总部位于得克萨斯州欧文市。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) contracting (-12% YoY to ~$1B, 0.1× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）收缩（同比-12%，约 $1B，覆盖营收 0.1 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Capital intensity rising
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。