CERT Certara, Inc. · $6.93 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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Certara, Inc. · Health Care

CERT

$6.93
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利 Small cap小盘 $1B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$6.93
49.0% below 52-week high低于52周高点 49.0%
Market Cap市值
$1B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
1.05
Moves about 1.0x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.0 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
60
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-05 (17d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
68th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
18.5% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 CERT S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +2.4% -1.5% Beat the index by 3.9 points跑赢指数 3.9 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +14.9% +0.6% Beat the index by 14.3 points跑赢指数 14.3 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +11.4% +4.7% Beat the index by 6.7 points跑赢指数 6.7 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -27.1% +7.8% Lagged the index by 34.9 points落后指数 34.9 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -20.7% +9.1% Lagged the index by 29.8 points落后指数 29.8 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -34.3% +19.4% Lagged the index by 53.7 points落后指数 53.7 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -64.0% +69.4% Lagged the index by 133.4 points落后指数 133.4 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 60 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +19.6% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -11.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 68th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$6.68
Don't chase above不追高于
$6.93
Stop止损
$5.20
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

17
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-05

Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 CERT Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/B市净率 1.04x 3.52
97%
P/S市销率 2.63x 3.02
56%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 -0.14% 2.72
23%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 8.57% 3.94
88%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 3.86% 1.89
77%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 12.54x 18.21
79%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 11.66x 22.42
85%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$286.1M
2021
$335.6M
2022
$354.3M
2023
$385.1M
2024
$418.8M
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 10.0%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$-0.09
2021
$0.09
2022
$-0.35
2023
$-0.08
2024
$-0.01
2025
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$59.2M
2021
$91.1M
2022
$81.0M
2023
$78.8M
2024
$94.6M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
5.0%
Net margin净利率
-0.4%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
23.0%
-0.2%Return on Equity股本回报率
-0.1%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.08
Current ratio流动比率2.05
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$42.6M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$33.1M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-1.2%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.7) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 80% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 80% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.05×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.0× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.0 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 CERT took relative-strength leadershipCERT 取得相对强弱领先

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.2M net (1 buyers, 0 sellers)+$0.2M 净值（1 买家，0 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~23 day(s) ago @ 5.2) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 23 天前形成 @ 5.2）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
CERT took relative-strength leadershipCERT 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $7.28.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$7.28。
Jul 14, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
CERT RSI reached overboughtCERT RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $6.97.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$6.97。
Jun 29, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BUY ZONE接近低点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 22, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 16, 2026
TOPPING → UPTREND做顶中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 16, 2026
CERT daily MACD crossed upCERT 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $6.05.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$6.05。
Jun 16, 2026
CERT StochRSI turned up from oversoldCERT StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $6.05.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$6.05。

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Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.04
Value价值
+0.5
Quality质量
+0.4
Investment资本投入
+0.6
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.0
Low volatility低波动
-1.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.3
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.2
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.6

Company Profile公司档案

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
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