Vistra Corp. · Utilities
VST
$155.44
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas.维斯特拉公司是一家总部位于德克萨斯州欧文的综合零售电力和发电公司。
Distressed困境股
Large cap大盘
$53B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~13+ trading days. Wait for support t这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 13+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$155.44
28.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 28.5%
Market Cap市值
$53B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
55.7x
22.6x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
14.4x
EPS每股收益 $2.79
Beta贝塔
1.57
Moves about 1.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.6 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
0.59%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
9th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.7% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | VST | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -2.2% | -1.5% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -2.0% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 2.6 points落后指数 2.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -4.9% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 9.6 points落后指数 9.6 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -6.6% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 14.4 points落后指数 14.4 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -5.8% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 14.9 points落后指数 14.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -14.3% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 33.7 points落后指数 33.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +497.3% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 427.9 points跑赢指数 427.9 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +805.3% | +83.9% | Beat the index by 721.4 points跑赢指数 721.4 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralInsider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis)Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud
RSI (14)RSI（14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+1.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-6.3% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
12
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility rank波动率分位
9th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$151.35
Don't chase above不追高于
$155.40
Stop止损
$151.10
Wait for the pullback等待回撤
Earnings财务业绩
18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | VST | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 55.67x | 22.58 | 0% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 14.4x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 10.31x | 2.06 | 2% |
| P/S市销率 | 2.96x | 3.01 | 55% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.80% | 4.41 | 4% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.51% | -2.94 | 87% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.54% | 2.81 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 17.68x | 12.72 | 12% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 39.87x | 39.80 | 42% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 9.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 10.9%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
18.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
2.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 4.18 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.78 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $1.0B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $113.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.4)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 31% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 31% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.57×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
0.59%
Pays a dividend (0.59% yield)有分红（收益率 0.59%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Utilities (Equal-Weight) theme — #21 of 46 themes「公用事业（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 21 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.47%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±7.76%
Call wall看涨密集区
$170
Put wall看跌密集区
$140
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$152
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.6%
Flow资金流向
$17M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 51 fresh positions; P/C 1.52; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $17M；0DTE占0%；51个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.52；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$116.7M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$116.7M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Adding加仓 | 7.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Appaloosa (Tepper) | A | Adding加仓 | 5.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
BOTTOM WATCH
NEARING A LOW
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 8, 2026
VST StochRSI turned up from oversoldVST StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $154.82.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$154.82。
Jul 2, 2026
VST printed a daily-cycle lowVST 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $151.05.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$151.05。
Jul 1, 2026
VST daily MACD crossed downVST 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $153.16.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$153.16。
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 19, 2026
VST weekly MACD crossed upVST 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jun 16, 2026
VST daily MACD crossed upVST 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $158.39.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$158.39。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.28
Value价值
-0.8
Quality质量
+0.5
Investment资本投入
-0.1
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.4
Low volatility低波动
-0.7
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.9
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.5
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.3
Company Profile公司档案
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas.维斯特拉公司是一家总部位于德克萨斯州欧文的综合零售电力和发电公司。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for power & grid buildout云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——电力与电网建设的需求来源
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。