UPBD Upbound Group, Inc. · $22.16 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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Upbound Group, Inc. · Consumer Disc.

UPBD

$22.16
Broken growth成长受损 Small cap小盘 $1B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$22.16
14.0% below 52-week high低于52周高点 14.0%
Market Cap市值
$1B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
17.6x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.56
Moves about 1.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.6 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
65
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-30 (11d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
56th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
10.8% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 UPBD S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +4.7% -1.5% Beat the index by 6.2 points跑赢指数 6.2 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +26.9% +0.6% Beat the index by 26.3 points跑赢指数 26.3 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +11.3% +4.7% Beat the index by 6.6 points跑赢指数 6.6 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +12.4% +7.8% Beat the index by 4.6 points跑赢指数 4.6 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +30.5% +9.1% Beat the index by 21.4 points跑赢指数 21.4 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -4.3% +19.4% Lagged the index by 23.7 points落后指数 23.7 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -22.0% +69.4% Lagged the index by 91.4 points落后指数 91.4 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 65 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +16.7% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +17.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 56th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$20.81
Don't chase above不追高于
$22.16
Stop止损
$17.46
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

11
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-30

Estimates being raised — 5 analysts预期上调 — 5 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 UPBD Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 17.64x 20.23
59%
P/B市净率 1.85x 2.97
67%
P/S市销率 0.27x 1.23
92%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 5.67% 4.53
64%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 18.53% 5.69
96%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 0.00% 4.31
3%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 4.24x 11.48
92%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 5.40x 16.53
95%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$2.8B
2020
$4.6B
2021
$4.2B
2022
$4.0B
2023
$4.3B
2024
$4.7B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 10.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$3.73
2020
$2.02
2021
$0.21
2022
$-0.09
2023
$2.21
2024
$1.25
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -19.6%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$202.0M
2020
$329.8M
2021
$407.1M
2022
$146.9M
2023
$48.4M
2024
$238.7M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
48.4%
Operating margin营业利润率
4.8%
Net margin净利率
1.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
6.5%
10.5%Return on Equity股本回报率
2.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.44
Capital Allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$45.4M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+6.2%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/6 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.4) Watch关注

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 81% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 81% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.56×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/6
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 Golden cross on UPBDUPBD 金叉

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.1M net (1 buyers, 0 sellers)+$0.1M 净值（1 买家，0 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 17.46) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 20 天前形成 @ 17.46）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
Golden cross on UPBDUPBD 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $22.76.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$22.76。
Jul 16, 2026
UPBD RSI reached overboughtUPBD RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $22.76.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$22.76。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 13, 2026
UPBD took relative-strength leadershipUPBD 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $21.15.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$21.15。
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 245 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.29
Value价值
+1.7
Profitability盈利能力
+2.1
Quality质量
+0.4
Investment资本投入
-0.9
Shareholder payout股东回报
-1.0
Low volatility低波动
-0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.9
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.5
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.7

Company Profile公司档案

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Capital intensity rising
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