TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation · $415.70 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 Terminal终端 ↗

Texas Pacific Land Corporation · Energy

TPL

$415.70

The Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a publicly traded real estate operating company with its administrative office in Dallas, Texas. Owning over 880,000 acres (3,600 km2) in 20 West Texas counties, TPL is among the largest private landowners in the...TheTexasPacificLandCorporation是一家公开交易的房地产运营公司，行政办公室位于德克萨斯州达拉斯。TPL在西德克萨斯州20个县拥有超过88万英亩（3,600平方公里）土地，是德克萨斯州最大的私人土地所有者之一。

Broken growth成长受损 Large cap大盘 $29B

Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20

Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势

Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 354.48.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 354.48 下方。

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Price Chart价格图表

Full chart in Terminal终端完整图表 ↗

Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格

$415.70

22.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 22.9%

Market Cap市值

$29B

Normal volume正常成交量

P/E Ratio市盈率

59.5x

20.8x sector median

Forward P/E预测市盈率

5.7x

EPS每股收益 $6.98

Beta贝塔

0.40

Moves about 0.4x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.4 倍

Dividend Yield股息收益率

0.58%

RSI (14)RSI（14）

Neutral zone中性区域

Next Earnings下次财报

2026-08-05 (17d)

Volatility Rank波动率分位

28th pctile

hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数

Short Interest空头兴趣

5.9% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期	TPL	S&P 500	vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周	+4.5%	-1.5%	Beat the index by 6.0 points跑赢指数 6.0 个百分点
1 Month近1月	+17.3%	+0.6%	Beat the index by 16.7 points跑赢指数 16.7 个百分点
3 Months近3月	-1.5%	+4.7%	Lagged the index by 6.2 points落后指数 6.2 个百分点
6 Months近6月	+23.5%	+7.8%	Beat the index by 15.7 points跑赢指数 15.7 个百分点
Year to date年初至今	+39.9%	+9.1%	Beat the index by 30.8 points跑赢指数 30.8 个百分点
1 Year近1年	+26.5%	+19.4%	Beat the index by 7.1 points跑赢指数 7.1 个百分点
3 Years近3年	+170.4%	+69.4%	Beat the index by 101.0 points跑赢指数 101.0 个百分点
5 Years近5年	+180.6%	+83.9%	Beat the index by 96.7 points跑赢指数 96.7 个百分点

Technicals技术面

Active signals活跃信号

1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Overvalued — composite multiples in most expensive decile vs universeInsider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralRSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Down

RSI (14)RSI（14） 58 Neutral zone中性区域

vs 50-day相对50日均线 +5.7% vs 50-day avg

vs 200-day相对200日均线 +9.5% vs 200-day avg

Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX） 16 No clear trend无明显趋势

Volatility rank波动率分位 28th percentile 分位

Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议

Buy zone买入区间

$402.70

Don't chase above不追高于

$415.70

Stop止损

$354.50

Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

days until next report天后公布财报

2026-08-05

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标	TPL	Sector median行业中位	Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史）	59.53x	20.82	8%
P/E (forward)市盈率（预测）	5.7x	—	—
P/B市净率	19.64x	1.68	2%
P/S市销率	35.90x	1.93	0%
Earnings yield盈利收益率	1.68%	4.36	19%
Shareholder yield股东收益率	0.03%	3.25	8%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA	43.55x	8.28	0%

Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入

$302.6M

2020

$451.0M

2021

$667.4M

2022

$631.6M

2023

$705.8M

2024

$798.2M

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 21.4%

Earnings Per Share每股收益

$22.70

2020

$34.83

2021

$57.77

2022

$52.77

2023

$19.72

2024

$6.97

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -21.0%

Free Cash Flow自由现金流

$202.0M

2020

$248.7M

2021

$428.2M

2022

2023

2024

2025

Margins利润率

Operating margin营业利润率

74.2%

Net margin净利率

60.3%

FCF margin自由现金流利润率

68.4%

33.0%Return on Equity股本回报率

29.7%Return on Assets资产回报率

Leverage杠杆

Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA	-0.22
Current ratio流动比率	4.40

Capital Allocation资本配置

Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）	$8.4M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬	$15.1M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）	+0.0%

Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/7 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (3.2) Watch关注

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业

Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵

Cheaper than 2% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 2% 的公司

Beta市场敏感度

0.40×

0.21×3×

Moves about 0.4× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.4 倍

Financial Health财务健康

3/7

Altman阿尔特曼: safe

Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱

Dividend分红

0.58%

Pays a dividend (0.58% yield)有分红（收益率 0.58%）

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Energy (Equal-Weight) theme — #7 of 46 themes「能源（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 7 位

Macro宏观 Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。

Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易

Technical技术面 NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大

Expected daily move预期日波动

±2.88%

Expected weekly move预期周波动

±6.44%

Put wall看跌密集区

$380

25d risk reversal25d风险逆转

-0.5%

Skew: 偏斜：balanced

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$0.8M net (1 buyers, 2 sellers)-$0.8M 净值（1 买家，2 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向

HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量开始上翘；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号

COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN

Jul 10, 2026

NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中

BUY SETUP买入预备

Jul 8, 2026

BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点

GET READY准备

Jul 6, 2026

UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中

BUY SETUP买入预备

Jul 2, 2026

NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向