SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. · $65.59 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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SPS Commerce, Inc. · Tech

SPSC

$65.59
SPS Commerce, Inc. is a technology and application software company based in the United States that provides cloud-based supply chain management software.SPSCommerce,Inc.是一家总部位于美国的技术与应用软件公司，提供基于云的供应链管理软件。
Secular growth长期成长 Mid cap中盘 $2B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought (daily RSI 73)). Don't cha已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（已超买（日线 RSI 73））。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$65.59
54.0% below 52-week high低于52周高点 54.0%
Market Cap市值
$2B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
26.4x
40.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.60
Moves about 0.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
73
Overbought超买区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-29 (10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
25th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
8.2% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 SPSC S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +7.8% -1.5% Beat the index by 9.3 points跑赢指数 9.3 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +24.1% +0.6% Beat the index by 23.5 points跑赢指数 23.5 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +13.8% +4.7% Beat the index by 9.1 points跑赢指数 9.1 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -27.2% +7.8% Lagged the index by 35.0 points落后指数 35.0 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -25.4% +9.1% Lagged the index by 34.5 points落后指数 34.5 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -54.0% +19.4% Lagged the index by 73.4 points落后指数 73.4 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -66.3% +69.4% Lagged the index by 135.7 points落后指数 135.7 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 73 Overbought超买区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +16.2% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -10.1% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 25th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$60.91
Don't chase above不追高于
$65.59
Stop止损
$52.84
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

10
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-29

Estimates being raised — 9 analysts预期上调 — 9 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 SPSC Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 26.36x 40.17
66%
P/B市净率 2.53x 5.85
77%
P/S市销率 3.27x 4.85
63%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 3.79% 2.19
72%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 6.19% 3.05
78%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 4.64% 2.16
78%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 16.57x 29.30
71%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 16.16x 30.46
75%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$312.6M
2020
$385.3M
2021
$450.9M
2022
$536.9M
2023
$637.8M
2024
$751.5M
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 19.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$1.26
2020
$1.21
2021
$1.49
2022
$1.76
2023
$2.04
2024
$2.46
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 14.3%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$72.1M
2020
$93.3M
2021
$80.2M
2022
$112.5M
2023
$137.4M
2024
$152.3M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
69.2%
Operating margin营业利润率
15.7%
Net margin净利率
12.4%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
23.8%
9.6%Return on Equity股本回报率
8.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-1.09
Current ratio流动比率2.17
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$114.3M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$53.7M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.4%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (9.2) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 71% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 71% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.60×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 SPSC RSI reached overboughtSPSC RSI进入超买

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$1.6M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$1.6M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 52.84) and overbought (daily RSI 73). A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 20 天前形成 @ 52.84）且已超买（日线 RSI 73）。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 15, 2026
SPSC RSI reached overboughtSPSC RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $64.11.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$64.11。
Jul 13, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 10, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 8, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 30, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 25, 2026
SPSC daily MACD crossed upSPSC 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $55.71.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$55.71。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 233 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.02
Value价值
-0.2
Profitability盈利能力
+0.7
Quality质量
+0.4
Investment资本投入
-0.3
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.2
Low volatility低波动
-0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.3
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.5
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.2

Company Profile公司档案

SPS Commerce, Inc. is a technology and application software company based in the United States that provides cloud-based supply chain management software.SPSCommerce,Inc.是一家总部位于美国的技术与应用软件公司，提供基于云的供应链管理软件。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Receivables stretch
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