SMPL Simply Good Foods Company · $11.08 Avoid — downtrend回避 — 下行趋势 Terminal终端 ↗

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Simply Good Foods Company · Staples

SMPL

$11.08
Rate-sensitive利率敏感 Small cap小盘 $1B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Avoid — downtrend回避 — 下行趋势
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$11.08
66.8% below 52-week high低于52周高点 66.8%
Market Cap市值
$1B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
10.7x
24.1x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.10
Moves about 0.1x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.1 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
37
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-09 (-10d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
84th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
7.2% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 SMPL S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 -13.2% -1.5% Lagged the index by 11.7 points落后指数 11.7 个百分点
1 Month近1月 -8.7% +0.6% Lagged the index by 9.3 points落后指数 9.3 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -6.8% +4.7% Lagged the index by 11.5 points落后指数 11.5 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -47.1% +7.8% Lagged the index by 54.9 points落后指数 54.9 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -43.4% +9.1% Lagged the index by 52.5 points落后指数 52.5 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -66.8% +19.4% Lagged the index by 86.2 points落后指数 86.2 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -70.7% +69.4% Lagged the index by 140.1 points落后指数 140.1 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 37 Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -9.2% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -33.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 84th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$11.08
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 SMPL Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 10.66x 24.10
90%
P/B市净率 0.64x 3.38
98%
P/S市销率 0.76x 1.28
61%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 9.38% 3.76
93%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 14.29% 4.71
94%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 4.61% 2.48
69%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 7.04x 12.39
85%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 7.00x 21.12
92%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$816.6M
2020
$1.0B
2021
$1.2B
2022
$1.2B
2023
$1.3B
2024
$1.5B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 12.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$0.35
2020
$0.42
2021
$1.08
2022
$1.32
2023
$1.38
2024
$1.02
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 23.9%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$57.2M
2020
$126.2M
2021
$105.4M
2022
$159.5M
2023
$210.0M
2024
$157.9M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
36.2%
Operating margin营业利润率
10.8%
Net margin净利率
7.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
12.3%
6.0%Return on Equity股本回报率
4.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.84
Current ratio流动比率3.64
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$50.9M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$15.3M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.4%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/9 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: grey (2.5) Watch关注

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 86% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 86% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.10×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.1× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.1 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/9
Altman阿尔特曼: grey
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Short interest changed +11.1%空头仓位变动 +11.1%
Technical技术面 SMPL broke down vs the marketSMPL 相对市场走弱

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$0.2M net (2 buyers, 1 sellers)+$0.2M 净值（2 买家，1 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
Oaktree Capital Management B New position新建仓 0.3% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → DOWNTREND筑底中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases)回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）
DECLINE DOWNTREND
Jul 17, 2026
SMPL broke down vs the marketSMPL 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $11.08.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$11.08。
Jul 14, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 14, 2026
SMPL daily MACD crossed downSMPL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $12.35.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$12.35。
Jul 13, 2026
TOPPING → UPTREND做顶中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 13, 2026
SMPL daily MACD crossed upSMPL 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $13.31.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$13.31。
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A LOW → TOPPING接近低点 → 做顶中
SELL SETUP卖出预备
Jul 10, 2026
SMPL daily MACD crossed downSMPL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $12.77.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$12.77。
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 262 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.34
Value价值
+2.4
Profitability盈利能力
-0.6
Quality质量
+0.2
Investment资本投入
+0.5
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.1
Low volatility低波动
-0.6
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+1.0
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.2

Company Profile公司档案

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Capital intensity rising
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