Grocery Outlet · Staples
GO
$9.44
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is an American discount closeout retailer consisting exclusively of supermarket locations that offer discounted, overstocked, and closeout products from name-brand and private-label suppliers.GroceryOutlet控股公司（GroceryOutletHoldingCorp.）是一家美国折扣清仓零售商，旗下全部为超市门店，提供品牌和自有品牌供应商的打折、过剩及清仓商品。
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
Small cap小盘
$930M
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
Setup almost complete — likely buy trigger in ~1–3 trading days if it closes back above its 10-day average.形态接近完成——若收盘重新站上 10 日均线，预计将在约 1–3 个交易日内出现买入触发。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$9.44
49.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 49.4%
Market Cap市值
$930M
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
0.48
Moves about 0.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
46
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
15th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
22.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | GO | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -5.4% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 3.9 points落后指数 3.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -0.4% | +0.6% | In line with the index与指数基本持平 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +24.5% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 19.8 points跑赢指数 19.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -1.6% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 9.4 points落后指数 9.4 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -7.2% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 16.3 points落后指数 16.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | -31.2% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 50.6 points落后指数 50.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | -71.6% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 141.0 points落后指数 141.0 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
46
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+5.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-4.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
15th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$9.35
Don't chase above不追高于
$9.52
Stop止损
$9.26
Buy soon — on confirmation即将买入 — 待确认
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | GO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 0.94x | 3.38 | 86% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.20x | 1.28 | 94% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -24.27% | 3.76 | 2% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.57% | 4.71 | 21% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.00% | 2.48 | 4% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 38.93x | 21.12 | 16% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 8.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
-22.9%Return on Equity股本回报率
-7.3%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.37 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $10.5M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.9% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/9
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.7)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 67% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 67% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.48×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/9
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -14.2%空头仓位变动 -14.2%
Technical技术面
GO lost its 200-day averageGO 跌破200日均线
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: +$7.0M net (6 buyers, 5 sellers)+$7.0M 净值（6 买家，5 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | trimtrim | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 10, 2026
GO lost its 200-day averageGO 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $9.98.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$9.98。
Jul 10, 2026
GO daily MACD crossed downGO 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $9.98.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$9.98。
Jul 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
GO reclaimed its 200-day averageGO 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $10.39.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$10.39。
Jul 1, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 30, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
GO took relative-strength leadershipGO 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $9.98.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$9.98。
Jun 29, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 26, 2026
GO took relative-strength leadershipGO 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $9.92.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$9.92。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.19
Value价值
+1.4
Profitability盈利能力
+0.8
Quality质量
+1.1
Investment资本投入
+0.7
Shareholder payout股东回报
-1.0
Low volatility低波动
-1.9
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.5
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.6
Short interest空头兴趣
-2.8
Company Profile公司档案
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is an American discount closeout retailer consisting exclusively of supermarket locations that offer discounted, overstocked, and closeout products from name-brand and private-label suppliers.GroceryOutlet控股公司（GroceryOutletHoldingCorp.）是一家美国折扣清仓零售商，旗下全部为超市门店，提供品牌和自有品牌供应商的打折、过剩及清仓商品。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。