Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 14.71 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's mi日线转向已经完成——低点于约 20 天前形成 @ 14.71，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$17.10
0.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 0.4%
Market Cap市值
$1B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
10.7x
31.0x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.71
Moves about 0.7x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
66
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-04 (16d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
53th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
4.4% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | SAFE | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +6.1% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 7.6 points跑赢指数 7.6 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +16.3% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 15.7 points跑赢指数 15.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +10.5% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 5.8 points跑赢指数 5.8 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +15.7% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 7.9 points跑赢指数 7.9 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +27.1% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 18.0 points跑赢指数 18.0 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +18.0% | +19.4% | Lagged the index by 1.4 points落后指数 1.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | -21.2% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 90.6 points落后指数 90.6 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
66
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+10.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+16.9% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
53th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$16.90
Don't chase above不追高于
$17.27
Stop止损
$14.71
Cycle turn — awaiting confluence cross周期拐点 — 等待共振交叉确认
Earnings财务业绩
16
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-04
Estimates being cut预期下调
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | SAFE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 10.72x | 30.98 | 90% |
| P/B市净率 | 0.51x | 2.01 | 97% |
| P/S市销率 | 3.18x | 6.79 | 76% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 9.33% | 3.11 | 92% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 52.91x | 14.15 | 2% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -6.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Margins利润率
4.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
1.6%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | 41.70 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $122.6M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $12.5M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +0.4% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (0.3)
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 66% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 66% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.71×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.7× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
SAFE took relative-strength leadershipSAFE 取得相对强弱领先
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 16, 2026
SAFE took relative-strength leadershipSAFE 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $17.17.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$17.17。
Jul 14, 2026
SAFE made a new 52-week highSAFE 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $16.44.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$16.44。
Jul 10, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 6, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
SAFE made a new 52-week highSAFE 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $16.39.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$16.39。
Jun 30, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.43
Value价值
+2.2
Quality质量
-0.9
Investment资本投入
+0.2
Low volatility低波动
+0.3
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
-1.0
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.8
Company Profile公司档案
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。