MTN Vail Resorts · $147.86 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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Vail Resorts · Consumer Disc.

MTN

$147.86
Vail Resorts, Inc. is an American mountain resort company headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.韦尔度假村公司是一家美国山地度假村公司，总部位于科罗拉多州布隆菲尔德。
Distressed困境股 Mid cap中盘 $5B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$147.86
5.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 5.9%
Market Cap市值
$5B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
18.9x
20.2x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.55
Moves about 0.5x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
Volatility Rank波动率分位
92th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
19.7% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 MTN S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 -1.5% -1.5% In line with the index与指数基本持平
1 Month近1月 +15.6% +0.6% Beat the index by 15.0 points跑赢指数 15.0 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +11.0% +4.7% Beat the index by 6.3 points跑赢指数 6.3 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +6.2% +7.8% Lagged the index by 1.6 points落后指数 1.6 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +12.3% +9.1% Beat the index by 3.2 points跑赢指数 3.2 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -1.9% +19.4% Lagged the index by 21.3 points落后指数 21.3 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -30.4% +69.4% Lagged the index by 99.8 points落后指数 99.8 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 61 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +10.2% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +8.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 92th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$144.90
Don't chase above不追高于
$147.90
Stop止损
$127.90
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 MTN Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 18.89x 20.23
53%
P/B市净率 17.53x 2.97
7%
P/S市销率 1.78x 1.23
35%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 5.29% 4.53
58%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 6.04% 5.69
53%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 5.10% 4.31
60%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 9.39x 11.48
61%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 16.55x 16.53
49%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$2.0B
2020
$1.9B
2021
$2.5B
2022
$2.9B
2023
$2.9B
2024
$3.0B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 8.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$2.42
2020
$3.13
2021
$8.55
2022
$6.74
2023
$6.07
2024
$7.53
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 25.5%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$222.6M
2020
$410.2M
2021
$517.7M
2022
$324.7M
2023
$375.6M
2024
$319.7M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
18.9%
Net margin净利率
9.4%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
18.7%
92.8%Return on Equity股本回报率
5.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA3.22
Current ratio流动比率0.63
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$270.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$34.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-4.4%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/7 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.5) Watch关注

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 42% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 42% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.55×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.5× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.5 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/7
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 MTN took relative-strength leadershipMTN 取得相对强弱领先

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$5.0M net (2 buyers, 0 sellers)+$5.0M 净值（2 买家，0 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 127.93) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 20 天前形成 @ 127.93）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 17, 2026
MTN took relative-strength leadershipMTN 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $147.86.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$147.86。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 13, 2026
MTN took relative-strength leadershipMTN 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $151.47.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$151.47。
Jul 10, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 8, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 6, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 6, 2026
MTN daily MACD crossed upMTN 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $142.12.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$142.12。
Jul 2, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 248 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.02
Value价值
-0.5
Quality质量
-0.2
Investment资本投入
+0.4
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.3
Low volatility低波动
+0.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.4
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.0
Short interest空头兴趣
-2.5

Company Profile公司档案

Vail Resorts, Inc. is an American mountain resort company headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.韦尔度假村公司是一家美国山地度假村公司，总部位于科罗拉多州布隆菲尔德。
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