MSM MSC Industrial Direct · $124.77 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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MSC Industrial Direct · Industrials

MSM

$124.77
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc (MSC), through its subsidiaries, primarily MSC Industrial Supply Co., is one of the largest industrial equipment distributors in the United States, distributing more than 1.5 million metalworking and other industrial products.MSC工业直销公司（MSC）通过其子公司（主要是MSC工业供应公司）是美国最大的工业设备分销商之一，分销超过150万种金属加工和其他工业产品。
Quality compounder优质复利股 Mid cap中盘 $7B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought (daily RSI 66, 3-day 75 & 已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（已超买（日线 RSI 66、3 日 75 与周线 84））。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$124.77
0.7% below 52-week high低于52周高点 0.7%
Market Cap市值
$7B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
34.9x
29.9x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.67
Moves about 0.7x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
66
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-01 (-18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
33th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
3.9% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 MSM S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +1.4% -1.5% Beat the index by 2.9 points跑赢指数 2.9 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +9.1% +0.6% Beat the index by 8.5 points跑赢指数 8.5 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +27.9% +4.7% Beat the index by 23.2 points跑赢指数 23.2 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +48.6% +7.8% Beat the index by 40.8 points跑赢指数 40.8 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +48.3% +9.1% Beat the index by 39.2 points跑赢指数 39.2 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +47.5% +19.4% Beat the index by 28.1 points跑赢指数 28.1 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +42.3% +69.4% Lagged the index by 27.1 points落后指数 27.1 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 66 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +9.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +31.8% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 33th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$121.30
Don't chase above不追高于
$124.80
Stop止损
$113.40
Topping — protect gains见顶 — 保护利润

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates being raised — 7 analysts预期上调 — 7 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 MSM Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 34.93x 29.89
37%
P/B市净率 5.04x 3.90
38%
P/S市销率 1.85x 2.21
58%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 2.86% 3.10
43%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 3.46% 3.81
44%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 0.56% 2.29
13%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 18.85x 16.39
36%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 28.91x 25.50
39%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$3.2B
2020
$3.2B
2021
$3.7B
2022
$4.0B
2023
$3.8B
2024
$3.8B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 3.4%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$4.51
2020
$3.87
2021
$6.06
2022
$6.11
2023
$4.58
2024
$3.57
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: -4.6%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$349.7M
2020
$170.7M
2021
$184.8M
2022
$607.1M
2023
$311.3M
2024
$240.9M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
40.8%
Operating margin营业利润率
8.0%
Net margin净利率
5.3%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
8.9%
14.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
8.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.09
Current ratio流动比率1.68
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$39.3M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$12.6M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.1%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (6.3) Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 43% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 43% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.67×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.7× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.7 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Industrial Distribution & Capital Goods theme — #20 of 46 themes「工业分销与资本品」主题 — 46 个主题中第 20 位
Macro宏观 Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓 Short interest changed -18.8%空头仓位变动 -18.8%
Technical技术面 MSM made a new 52-week highMSM 创52周新高

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡

Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.03%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.54%
Call wall看涨密集区
$130
Put wall看跌密集区
$115
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$116
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-11.6%
Skew: 偏斜：fear

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$17.8M net (2 buyers, 1 sellers)+$17.8M 净值（2 买家，1 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~22 day(s) ago @ 113.39) and overbought (daily RSI 66, 3-day 75 & weekly 84). A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 22 天前形成 @ 113.39）且已超买（日线 RSI 66、3 日 75 与周线 84）。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 16, 2026
MSM made a new 52-week highMSM 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $125.63.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$125.63。
Jul 13, 2026
MSM daily MACD crossed upMSM 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $123.99.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$123.99。
Jul 10, 2026
MSM made a new 52-week highMSM 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $123.02.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$123.02。
Jul 7, 2026
MSM daily MACD crossed downMSM 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $119.20.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$119.20。
Jul 1, 2026
MSM made a new 52-week highMSM 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $122.45.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$122.45。
Jul 1, 2026
MSM daily MACD crossed upMSM 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $122.45.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$122.45。
Jul 1, 2026
MSM StochRSI turned up from oversoldMSM StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $122.45.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$122.45。
Jun 30, 2026
MSM took relative-strength leadershipMSM 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $118.09.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$118.09。
Jun 29, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 281 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.40
Value价值
-0.5
Profitability盈利能力
+1.7
Quality质量
+0.8
Investment资本投入
+0.5
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.9
Low volatility低波动
+0.8
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
+0.1
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.7

Company Profile公司档案

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc (MSC), through its subsidiaries, primarily MSC Industrial Supply Co., is one of the largest industrial equipment distributors in the United States, distributing more than 1.5 million metalworking and other industrial products.MSC工业直销公司（MSC）通过其子公司（主要是MSC工业供应公司）是美国最大的工业设备分销商之一，分销超过150万种金属加工和其他工业产品。
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