AVAV AeroVironment · $142.20 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 Terminal终端 ↗

AeroVironment · Industrials

AVAV

$142.20

AeroVironment, Inc., also known as AV, is an American defense technology company headquartered in Arlington, Virginia that designs and manufactures autonomous systems, counter-UAS systems, and space systems. The company was founded in 1971 by Paul B. MacCready Jr., a designer...AeroVironment,Inc.（航空环境公司），简称AV，是一家美国防务技术公司，总部位于弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿，设计和制造自主系统、反无人机系统及太空系统。公司由人力飞行器设计师保罗·B·麦克雷迪于1971年创立。

Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利 Mid cap中盘 $7B

Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20

Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势

Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 136.68.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 136.68 下方。

Engine levels · 52-week range引擎点位 · 52周区间

$142

$137

$142

$147

$140

$121$428

Price现价 $142Trail stop止损线 $137Don't chase勿追高 $142Call wall看涨期权墙 $147Put wall看跌期权墙 $140 Buy zone买入区 $127–$134

Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗ All coverage所有股票 Data through数据截至 2026-07-20 · regenerated nightly每日更新

Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格

$142.20

65.3% below 52-week high低于52周高点 65.3%

Market Cap市值

$7B

Normal volume正常成交量

Beta贝塔

1.88

Moves about 1.9x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍

RSI (14)RSI（14）

Neutral zone中性区域

Next Earnings下次财报

2026-06-29 (-20d)

Volatility Rank波动率分位

94th pctile

hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数

Short Interest空头兴趣

8.2% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期	AVAV	S&P 500	vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周	-1.6%	-1.5%	In line with the index与指数基本持平
1 Month近1月	-14.9%	+0.6%	Lagged the index by 15.5 points落后指数 15.5 个百分点
3 Months近3月	-25.7%	+4.7%	Lagged the index by 30.4 points落后指数 30.4 个百分点
6 Months近6月	-63.8%	+7.8%	Lagged the index by 71.6 points落后指数 71.6 个百分点
Year to date年初至今	-44.5%	+9.1%	Lagged the index by 53.6 points落后指数 53.6 个百分点
1 Year近1年	-49.0%	+19.4%	Lagged the index by 68.4 points落后指数 68.4 个百分点
3 Years近3年	+51.6%	+69.4%	Lagged the index by 17.8 points落后指数 17.8 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 42 Neutral zone中性区域

vs 50-day相对50日均线 -15.2% vs 50-day avg

vs 200-day相对200日均线 -42.5% vs 200-day avg

Volatility rank波动率分位 94th percentile 分位

Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议

Buy zone买入区间

$130.50

Don't chase above不追高于

$142.20

Stop止损

$136.70

Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

Estimates being cut预期下调

Post-earnings drift: -13.4% (20d)财报后漂移：-13.4%（20日）

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标	AVAV	Sector median行业中位	Cheaper than相对便宜
P/S市销率	3.59x	2.21	31%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率	-0.34%	3.81	7%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA	86.80x	16.39	2%

Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入

$394.9M

2020

$445.7M

2022

$540.5M

2023

$716.7M

2024

$820.6M

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 20.1%

Earnings Per Share每股收益

$0.96

2020

$-0.17

2022

$-7.04

2023

$2.18

2024

$1.55

2025

5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 12.7%

Free Cash Flow自由现金流

$75.3M

2020

-$31.9M

2022

-$3.5M

2023

-$7.7M

2024

-$24.1M

2025

Margins利润率

Gross margin毛利率

25.3%

Operating margin营业利润率

5.0%

FCF margin自由现金流利润率

-4.0%

Leverage杠杆

Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA	-0.01
Current ratio流动比率	3.52

Capital Allocation资本配置

Stock-based comp股权薪酬	$21.5M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）	+77.0%

Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 2/9 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (19.9) Warning警示

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业

Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵

Cheaper than 13% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 13% 的公司

Beta市场敏感度

1.88×

0.21×3×

Moves about 1.9× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.9 倍

Financial Health财务健康

2/9

Altman阿尔特曼: safe

Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱

Dividend分红

—

Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

News新闻 1 recent stories — mixed1 篇最新报道，多空参半

Sector / Theme行业/主题 Defense & Aerospace theme — #39 of 46 themes「国防与航空航天」主题 — 46 个主题中第 39 位

Macro宏观 Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。

Positioning持仓 Short interest changed -14.6%空头仓位变动 -14.6%

Technical技术面 AVAV broke down vs the marketAVAV 相对市场走弱

Options Positioning期权持仓

Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大

Expected daily move预期日波动

±4.48%

Expected weekly move预期周波动

±10.01%

Call wall看涨密集区

$147

Put wall看跌密集区

$140

Gamma flip伽玛翻转

$156

25d risk reversal25d风险逆转

18.7%

Flow资金流向

$15M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 39 fresh positions; P/C 0.41; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +2,946); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $15M；0DTE占0%；39个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.41；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +2,946）；≈偏看涨（方向近似）

Skew: 偏斜：greed

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$2.8M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$2.8M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）

Fund基金	Grade评级	Activity动作	% of portfolio组合占比	As of截至
Polen Capital Management	B	exitexit	0.0%	2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向

HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum just crossed down; 3-day crossed down; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量刚刚向下交叉；3 日线向下交叉；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号

COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN

Jul 17, 2026

AVAV broke down vs the marketAVAV 相对市场走弱

Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $142.20.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$142.20。

Jul 10, 2026

DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点

GET READY准备

Jul 10, 2026

AVAV weekly MACD crossed downAVAV 周线MACD下穿

The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。

Jul 10, 2026

AVAV daily MACD crossed downAVAV 日线MACD下穿

The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $144.58.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$144.58。

Jul 8, 2026

UPTREND → DOWNTREND上涨趋势 → 下跌趋势

AVOID回避

Jul 7, 2026

BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势

HOLD持有

Jul 7, 2026

AVAV broke down vs the marketAVAV 相对市场走弱

Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $162.53.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$162.53。

Jul 3, 2026

AVAV weekly MACD crossed upAVAV 周线MACD上穿

The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。

Jul 2, 2026

UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中

BUY SETUP买入预备

Jul 1, 2026

AVAV daily MACD crossed upAVAV 日线MACD上穿

The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $172.44.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$172.44。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 234 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -1.15

Value价值

-0.7

Profitability盈利能力

-1.3

Quality质量

+1.5

Investment资本投入

-3.0

Low volatility低波动

-2.3

Low market beta低市场敏感度

-1.4

Short interest空头兴趣

+0.6

Company Profile公司档案

Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) decelerating (+62% YoY to ~$1B, 0.6× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）增速放缓（同比+62%，约 $1B，覆盖营收 0.6 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素