GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc. · $54.28 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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Goosehead Insurance, Inc. · Financials

GSHD

$54.28
Financial金融股
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$54.28
47.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 47.5%
Beta贝塔
-0.16
Moves about -0.2x the market波动幅度约为市场的 -0.2 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
62
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-22 (3d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
69th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数

Performance价格表现

Period周期 GSHD S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +1.4% -1.5% Beat the index by 2.9 points跑赢指数 2.9 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +54.5% +0.6% Beat the index by 53.9 points跑赢指数 53.9 个百分点
3 Months近3月 +23.8% +4.7% Beat the index by 19.1 points跑赢指数 19.1 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -24.2% +7.8% Lagged the index by 32.0 points落后指数 32.0 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -22.6% +9.1% Lagged the index by 31.7 points落后指数 31.7 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -46.9% +19.4% Lagged the index by 66.3 points落后指数 66.3 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -13.1% +69.4% Lagged the index by 82.5 points落后指数 82.5 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 62 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +27.2% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -3.5% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 69th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$51.62
Don't chase above不追高于
$54.28
Stop止损
$35.13
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

3
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-22

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$117.0M
2020
$151.3M
2021
$209.4M
2022
$261.3M
2023
$314.5M
2024
$365.3M
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 25.6%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$0.51
2020
$0.26
2021
$0.26
2022
$0.55
2023
$1.16
2024
$1.04
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 15.3%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$14.7M
2020
$22.7M
2021
$25.6M
2022
$46.3M
2023
$70.6M
2024
$86.1M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
20.4%
Net margin净利率
7.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
25.1%
-29.1%Return on Equity股本回报率
6.7%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA3.01
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$81.7M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$23.4M
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/7 Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Beta市场敏感度
-0.16×
0.21×3×
Has tended to move opposite the market (factor-adjusted)经因子调整后常与大盘反向波动
Financial Health财务健康
4/7
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 GSHD StochRSI turned up from oversoldGSHD StochRSI自超卖区上行

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$4.3M net (4 buyers, 1 sellers)-$4.3M 净值（4 买家，1 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
Akre Capital Management C Adding加仓 0.3% 2026-03-31
Durable Capital Partners B Holding持有 0.7% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 35.13) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 20 天前形成 @ 35.13）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 17, 2026
GSHD StochRSI turned up from oversoldGSHD StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $54.28.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$54.28。
Jul 16, 2026
GSHD took relative-strength leadershipGSHD 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $55.17.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$55.17。
Jul 14, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
GSHD took relative-strength leadershipGSHD 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $53.54.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$53.54。
Jul 7, 2026
GSHD took relative-strength leadershipGSHD 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $55.60.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$55.60。
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A HIGH未确认转向 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 1, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 1, 2026
GSHD RSI reached overboughtGSHD RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $50.61.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$50.61。

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 230 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.55
Quality质量
-0.6
Investment资本投入
+0.2
Low volatility低波动
-1.3
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+1.3
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.9
Short interest空头兴趣
+0.9

Company Profile公司档案

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Capital intensity rising
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