Deere & Company · Industrials
DE
$597.24
Deere & Company, is an American corporation that manufactures agricultural machinery, heavy equipment, forestry machinery, diesel engines, drivetrains used in heavy equipment and lawn care equipment. It also provides financial services and other related activities.迪尔公司是一家美国企业，制造农业机械、重型设备、林业机械、柴油发动机、重型设备传动系统及草坪护理设备，同时提供金融服务及其他相关业务。
Cyclical周期股
Large cap大盘
$161B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 567.17.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 567.17 下方。
Price Chart价格图表
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$597.24
9.6% below 52-week high低于52周高点 9.6%
Market Cap市值
$161B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
32.1x
29.9x sector median
Forward P/E预测市盈率
26.2x
EPS每股收益 $18.59
Beta贝塔
0.59
Moves about 0.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
Dividend Yield股息收益率
1.08%
RSI (14)RSI（14）
51
Neutral zone中性区域
Volatility Rank波动率分位
68th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
2.6% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | DE | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +1.8% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 3.3 points跑赢指数 3.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +1.8% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 1.2 points跑赢指数 1.2 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.1% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 3.6 points落后指数 3.6 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | +16.4% | +7.8% | Beat the index by 8.6 points跑赢指数 8.6 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +28.3% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 19.2 points跑赢指数 19.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +20.8% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 1.4 points跑赢指数 1.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +43.8% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 25.6 points落后指数 25.6 个百分点 |
| 5 Years近5年 | +85.7% | +83.9% | Beat the index by 1.8 points跑赢指数 1.8 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
Active signals活跃信号
1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers)Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers)Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutralInsider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis)Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud
RSI (14)RSI（14）
51
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+2.6% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+10.9% vs 200-day avg
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
21
Trending趋势中
Volatility rank波动率分位
68th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$585.15
Don't chase above不追高于
$597.20
Stop止损
$567.20
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: +13.0% (20d)财报后漂移：+13.0%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | DE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 32.13x | 29.89 | 45% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 26.2x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 6.14x | 3.90 | 31% |
| P/S市销率 | 3.54x | 2.21 | 32% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.11% | 3.10 | 50% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.78% | 3.81 | 49% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.77% | 2.29 | 41% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 26.48x | 25.50 | 44% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 5.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 16.3%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
19.1%Return on Equity股本回报率
4.9%Return on Assets资产回报率
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $1.1B |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $151.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -0.5% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 3/6
Watch关注
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Cheaper than 39% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 39% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.59×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
3/6
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
1.08%
Pays a dividend (1.08% yield)有分红（收益率 1.08%）
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #15 of 46 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 15 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +12.2%空头仓位变动 +12.2%
Technical技术面
DE weekly MACD crossed downDE 周线MACD下穿
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.31%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.16%
Call wall看涨密集区
$630
Put wall看跌密集区
$590
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$578
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
10.1%
Flow资金流向
$6M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 48 fresh positions; P/C 0.58; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +2,085); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $6M；0DTE占0%；48个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.58；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +2,085）；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：greed
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$32.5M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$32.5M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | D | Holding持有 | 6.3% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE
UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 17, 2026
DE weekly MACD crossed downDE 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 17, 2026
DE StochRSI turned up from oversoldDE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $597.24.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$597.24。
Jul 13, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 8, 2026
DE daily MACD crossed downDE 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $596.74.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$596.74。
Jul 7, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 3, 2026
DE weekly MACD crossed upDE 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 2, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 1, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.11
Value价值
-0.7
Quality质量
-0.3
Investment资本投入
+0.5
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.6
Low volatility低波动
+0.5
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.3
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.4
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.1
Company Profile公司档案
Deere & Company, is an American corporation that manufactures agricultural machinery, heavy equipment, forestry machinery, diesel engines, drivetrains used in heavy equipment and lawn care equipment. It also provides financial services and other related activities.迪尔公司是一家美国企业，制造农业机械、重型设备、林业机械、柴油发动机、重型设备传动系统及草坪护理设备，同时提供金融服务及其他相关业务。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) flat (+4% YoY to ~$2B, 0.0× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）持平（同比+4%，约 $2B，覆盖营收 0.0 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Inventory build
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