Alcoa · Materials
AA
$43.98
Alcoa Corporation is an American industrial corporation that produces aluminum. According to industry rankings, it is among the largest producers globally.AlcoaCorporation是一家生产铝的美国工业公司。根据行业排名，它是全球最大的生产商之一。
Distressed困境股
Large cap大盘
$12B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Avoid — downtrend回避 — 下行趋势
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$43.98
47.5% below 52-week high低于52周高点 47.5%
Market Cap市值
$12B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
10.0x
28.6x sector median
Beta贝塔
1.77
Moves about 1.8x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.8 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
25
Oversold超卖区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-16 (-3d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
43th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
3.2% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | AA | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -9.7% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 8.2 points落后指数 8.2 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -28.8% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 29.4 points落后指数 29.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | -32.9% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 37.6 points落后指数 37.6 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -26.5% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 34.3 points落后指数 34.3 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -22.0% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 31.1 points落后指数 31.1 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +51.0% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 31.6 points跑赢指数 31.6 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +30.0% | +69.4% | Lagged the index by 39.4 points落后指数 39.4 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
25
Oversold超卖区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-28.9% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
-20.8% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
43th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$43.98
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -4.7% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.7%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | AA | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 10.00x | 28.57 | 94% |
| P/S市销率 | 0.90x | 1.64 | 70% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 10.00% | 2.96 | 97% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.90% | 3.23 | 70% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.90% | 2.70 | 19% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 20.41x | 25.03 | 62% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 6.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
7.2%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Current ratio流动比率 | 1.44 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $41.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +1.8% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.6)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 78% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 78% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
1.77×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.8× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.8 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
AA RSI reached oversoldAA RSI进入超卖
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | Holding持有 | 2.9% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 16, 2026
AA RSI reached oversoldAA RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $46.85.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$46.85。
Jul 14, 2026
AA daily MACD crossed upAA 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $49.06.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$49.06。
Jul 7, 2026
AA StochRSI turned up from oversoldAA StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $49.01.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$49.01。
Jul 1, 2026
AA RSI reached oversoldAA RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $47.48.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$47.48。
Jun 24, 2026
AA lost its 200-day averageAA 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $52.30.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$52.30。
Jun 24, 2026
AA RSI reached oversoldAA RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $52.30.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$52.30。
Jun 15, 2026
AA broke down vs the marketAA 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $64.16.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$64.16。
Jun 12, 2026
AA weekly MACD crossed downAA 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 255 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.31
Value价值
+0.7
Quality质量
+0.0
Investment资本投入
-0.4
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.8
Low volatility低波动
-1.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.8
Short interest空头兴趣
+1.2
Company Profile公司档案
Alcoa Corporation is an American industrial corporation that produces aluminum. According to industry rankings, it is among the largest producers globally.AlcoaCorporation是一家生产铝的美国工业公司。根据行业排名，它是全球最大的生产商之一。
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