WMG Warner Music Group · $28.33 Leader · poor entry — wait for a base领先 · 入场点欠佳 — 等待筑底 Terminal终端 ↗

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Warner Music Group · Comm. Services

WMG

$28.33
Warner Music Group Corp., commonly abbreviated as WMG, is an American multinational entertainment and record label conglomerate headquartered in New York City. It is one of the "Big Three" recording companies and the third-largest in the global music industry, after...WarnerMusicGroupCorp.（简称WMG）是一家美国跨国娱乐与唱片公司集团，总部位于纽约市。它是全球音乐行业'三大'唱片公司之一，规模仅次于环球音乐集团和索尼音乐娱乐，排名第三。
Mixed profile混合特征
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Leader · poor entry — wait for a base领先 · 入场点欠佳 — 等待筑底
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 26.29.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 26.29 下方。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$28.33
18.0% below 52-week high低于52周高点 18.0%
Beta贝塔
0.61
Moves about 0.6x the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-06 (18d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
74th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数

Performance价格表现

Period周期 WMG S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 -2.3% -1.5% In line with the index与指数基本持平
1 Month近1月 -0.7% +0.6% Lagged the index by 1.3 points落后指数 1.3 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -5.8% +4.7% Lagged the index by 10.5 points落后指数 10.5 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -6.3% +7.8% Lagged the index by 14.1 points落后指数 14.1 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -5.8% +9.1% Lagged the index by 14.9 points落后指数 14.9 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -7.2% +19.4% Lagged the index by 26.6 points落后指数 26.6 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +1.8% +69.4% Lagged the index by 67.6 points落后指数 67.6 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 48 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 -5.6% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -3.2% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 74th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$27.87
Don't chase above不追高于
$28.33
Stop止损
$26.29
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

18
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-06

Estimates being raised — 6 analysts预期上调 — 6 位分析师

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$4.5B
2020
$5.3B
2021
$5.9B
2022
$6.0B
2023
$6.4B
2024
$6.7B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 8.5%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
$378.0M
2020
$545.0M
2021
$607.0M
2022
$560.0M
2023
$638.0M
2024
$539.0M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
10.3%
Net margin净利率
5.4%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
10.1%
50.7%Return on Equity股本回报率
3.6%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA3.30
Current ratio流动比率0.66
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$16.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$54.0M
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/8 Clean稳健

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Beta市场敏感度
0.61×
0.21×3×
Moves about 0.6× the market波动幅度约为市场的 0.6 倍
Financial Health财务健康
4/8
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$2.0M net (2 buyers, 0 sellers)+$2.0M 净值（2 买家，0 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负）。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 14, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 6, 2026
WMG broke down vs the marketWMG 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $27.40.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$27.40。
Jul 2, 2026
WMG daily MACD crossed upWMG 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $28.28.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$28.28。
Jul 1, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 29, 2026
WMG StochRSI turned up from oversoldWMG StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $26.59.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$26.59。
Jun 26, 2026
WMG weekly MACD crossed downWMG 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jun 25, 2026
WMG printed a daily-cycle lowWMG 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $26.29.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$26.29。

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Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.00
Quality质量
-0.4
Investment资本投入
-0.1
Low volatility低波动
+0.5
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+0.3
Earnings quality盈利质量
-0.3
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.9

Company Profile公司档案

Warner Music Group Corp., commonly abbreviated as WMG, is an American multinational entertainment and record label conglomerate headquartered in New York City. It is one of the "Big Three" recording companies and the third-largest in the global music industry, after...WarnerMusicGroupCorp.（简称WMG）是一家美国跨国娱乐与唱片公司集团，总部位于纽约市。它是全球音乐行业'三大'唱片公司之一，规模仅次于环球音乐集团和索尼音乐娱乐，排名第三。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Capital intensity rising
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