MTDR Matador Resources · $53.80 Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势 Terminal终端 ↗

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Matador Resources · Energy

MTDR

$53.80
Distressed困境股 Mid cap中盘 $7B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 49.04.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 49.04 下方。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$53.80
17.2% below 52-week high低于52周高点 17.2%
Market Cap市值
$7B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
8.8x
20.8x sector median
Beta贝塔
-0.34
Moves about -0.3x the market波动幅度约为市场的 -0.3 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
57
Neutral zone中性区域
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-28 (9d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
1th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
10.5% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 MTDR S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 +4.8% -1.5% Beat the index by 6.3 points跑赢指数 6.3 个百分点
1 Month近1月 +6.7% +0.6% Beat the index by 6.1 points跑赢指数 6.1 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -2.6% +4.7% Lagged the index by 7.3 points落后指数 7.3 个百分点
6 Months近6月 +27.4% +7.8% Beat the index by 19.6 points跑赢指数 19.6 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 +25.9% +9.1% Beat the index by 16.8 points跑赢指数 16.8 个百分点
1 Year近1年 +7.2% +19.4% Lagged the index by 12.2 points落后指数 12.2 个百分点
3 Years近3年 +3.7% +69.4% Lagged the index by 65.7 points落后指数 65.7 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 57 Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +0.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 +9.4% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 1th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$51.69
Don't chase above不追高于
$53.80
Stop止损
$49.04
Bounce — turn not confirmed; wait反弹 — 转向未确认，先观望

Earnings财务业绩

9
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-28

Estimates being cut预期下调

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 MTDR Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 8.81x 20.82
89%
P/B市净率 1.18x 1.68
78%
P/S市销率 1.81x 1.93
53%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 11.36% 4.36
92%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 4.03% 5.01
34%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 3.28% 3.25
55%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 4.16x 8.28
95%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 24.80x 19.68
24%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$862.1M
2020
$1.7B
2021
$3.1B
2022
$2.8B
2023
$3.5B
2024
$3.7B
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 33.8%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$-5.11
2020
$4.91
2021
$10.11
2022
$7.05
2023
$7.14
2024
$6.09
2025
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
-$244.3M
2020
$215.4M
2021
$915.5M
2022
-$1.4B
2023
-$1.7B
2024
$269.6M
2025
Margins利润率
Operating margin营业利润率
33.2%
Net margin净利率
20.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
65.6%
13.4%Return on Equity股本回报率
6.5%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.40
Current ratio流动比率0.79
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$55.8M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$18.3M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.6%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 4/9 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: distress (1.7) Warning警示

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 70% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 70% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
-0.34×
0.21×3×
Has tended to move opposite the market (factor-adjusted)经因子调整后常与大盘反向波动
Financial Health财务健康
4/9
Altman阿尔特曼: distress
Weak financial health财务健康状况偏弱
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 MTDR broke down vs the marketMTDR 相对市场走弱

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: +$1.5M net (13 buyers, 0 sellers)+$1.5M 净值（13 买家，0 卖家）

Signal History信号历史

DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
COUNTERTREND BOUNCE UNCONFIRMED TURN
Jul 10, 2026
MTDR broke down vs the marketMTDR 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $51.34.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$51.34。
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 2, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 2, 2026
MTDR daily MACD crossed upMTDR 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $50.18.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$50.18。
Jul 2, 2026
MTDR StochRSI turned up from oversoldMTDR StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $50.18.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$50.18。
Jul 1, 2026
MTDR printed a daily-cycle lowMTDR 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $49.04.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$49.04。
Jun 24, 2026
MTDR StochRSI turned up from oversoldMTDR StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $50.09.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$50.09。
Jun 15, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 15, 2026
MTDR broke down vs the marketMTDR 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $51.38.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$51.38。
Jun 10, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
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Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 236 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.51
Value价值
+1.4
Quality质量
+1.5
Investment资本投入
+0.0
Shareholder payout股东回报
-0.2
Low volatility低波动
-0.1
Low market beta低市场敏感度
+1.6
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.7
Short interest空头兴趣
-1.3

Company Profile公司档案

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
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