Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$96.08
23.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 23.9%
Market Cap市值
$6B
Normal volume正常成交量
Beta贝塔
2.24
Moves about 2.2x the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.2 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
38
Depressed偏低
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-10 (22d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
83th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
7.8% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | MRCY | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -11.0% | -1.5% | Lagged the index by 9.5 points落后指数 9.5 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | -16.8% | +0.6% | Lagged the index by 17.4 points落后指数 17.4 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +14.3% | +4.7% | Beat the index by 9.6 points跑赢指数 9.6 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -6.7% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 14.5 points落后指数 14.5 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | +26.4% | +9.1% | Beat the index by 17.3 points跑赢指数 17.3 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +84.1% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 64.7 points跑赢指数 64.7 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +173.8% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 104.4 points跑赢指数 104.4 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
38
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day相对50日均线
-9.5% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+10.6% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
83th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Stop止损
$96.00
Blocked — failed cycle受阻 — 失败周期
Earnings财务业绩
22
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-10
Estimates being raised — 5 analysts预期上调 — 5 位分析师
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | MRCY | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 3.91x | 3.90 | 49% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.09% | 3.81 | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 86.47x | 16.39 | 2% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 47.92x | 25.50 | 17% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 2.7%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -4.95 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 3.52 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $25.0M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | +1.2% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 5/8
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (4.4)
Warning警示
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 25% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 25% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
2.24×
0.21×3×
Moves about 2.2× the market波动幅度约为市场的 2.2 倍
Financial Health财务健康
5/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Defense & Aerospace theme — #39 of 46 themes「国防与航空航天」主题 — 46 个主题中第 39 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
Options Positioning期权持仓
Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.42%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±9.88%
Call wall看涨密集区
$105
Put wall看跌密集区
$95
Gamma flip伽玛翻转
$97
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.8%
Flow资金流向
$0M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 6 fresh positions; P/C 1.88; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI -63); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $0M；0DTE占0%；6个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.88；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI -63）；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: 偏斜：fear
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$150.2M net (0 buyers, 5 sellers)-$150.2M 净值（0 买家，5 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JANA Partners Management | C | trimtrim | 18.6% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
DECLINE
DOWNTREND
Jul 9, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 8, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
MRCY daily MACD crossed downMRCY 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $112.41.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$112.41。
Jul 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
MRCY daily MACD crossed upMRCY 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $126.21.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$126.21。
Jun 30, 2026
MRCY took relative-strength leadershipMRCY 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $122.33.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$122.33。
Jun 30, 2026
MRCY made a new 52-week highMRCY 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $122.33.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$122.33。
Jun 30, 2026
MRCY StochRSI turned up from oversoldMRCY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $122.33.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$122.33。
Jun 24, 2026
MRCY printed a daily-cycle lowMRCY 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $105.00.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$105.00。
Jun 22, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 246 signals条信号
Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: -0.74
Value价值
-1.1
Investment资本投入
+0.3
Low volatility低波动
-1.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-1.9
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.5
Company Profile公司档案
Get the full picture获取完整视图
Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。