Medpace · Health Care
MEDP
$537.73
Medpace Holdings, Inc. is a global clinical research organization (CRO) based in Cincinnati, Ohio, employing approximately 6,000 people.MedpaceHoldings,Inc.是一家全球性临床研究组织（CRO），总部位于俄亥俄州辛辛那提，员工约6000人。
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Large cap大盘
$15B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
High-confluence leader (context)高共振 领先（参考）
Setup almost complete — likely buy trigger in ~1–3 trading days if it closes back above its 10-day average.形态接近完成——若收盘重新站上 10 日均线，预计将在约 1–3 个交易日内出现买入触发。
Key Statistics关键统计
Price价格
$537.73
13.4% below 52-week high低于52周高点 13.4%
Market Cap市值
$15B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
33.8x
28.9x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.96
Moves about 1.0x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.0 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
62
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-07-22 (3d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
66th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
7.5% of float
Performance价格表现
| Period周期 | MEDP | S&P 500 | vs Index对比指数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.1% | -1.5% | Beat the index by 1.4 points跑赢指数 1.4 个百分点 |
| 1 Month近1月 | +17.6% | +0.6% | Beat the index by 17.0 points跑赢指数 17.0 个百分点 |
| 3 Months近3月 | +3.3% | +4.7% | Lagged the index by 1.4 points落后指数 1.4 个百分点 |
| 6 Months近6月 | -12.0% | +7.8% | Lagged the index by 19.8 points落后指数 19.8 个百分点 |
| Year to date年初至今 | -5.8% | +9.1% | Lagged the index by 14.9 points落后指数 14.9 个百分点 |
| 1 Year近1年 | +68.5% | +19.4% | Beat the index by 49.1 points跑赢指数 49.1 个百分点 |
| 3 Years近3年 | +115.5% | +69.4% | Beat the index by 46.1 points跑赢指数 46.1 个百分点 |
Technicals技术面
RSI (14)RSI（14）
62
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线
+13.3% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线
+4.2% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位
66th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$531.45
Don't chase above不追高于
$542.70
Stop止损
$455.70
Buy soon — on confirmation即将买入 — 待确认
Earnings财务业绩
3
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-07-22
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +2.9% (20d)财报后漂移：+2.9%（20日）
Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线
Valuation估值
| Multiple指标 | MEDP | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 33.82x | 28.92 | 39% |
| P/B市净率 | 33.23x | 3.52 | 2% |
| P/S市销率 | 6.03x | 3.02 | 24% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.96% | 2.72 | 55% |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.47% | 3.94 | 57% |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 6.01% | 1.89 | 85% |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 26.26x | 18.21 | 27% |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 22.37x | 22.42 | 50% |
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线
Financials财务数据
Revenue营业收入
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 22.3%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 31.8%
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
Margins利润率
98.3%Return on Equity股本回报率
22.8%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
| Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA | -0.88 |
| Current ratio流动比率 | 0.74 |
Capital Allocation资本配置
| Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM） | $917.4M |
| Stock-based comp股权薪酬 | $34.8M |
| Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年） | -7.4% |
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/7
Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (7.7)
Clean稳健
Snapshot Gauges综合指标
Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵
Cheaper than 30% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 30% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.96×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.0× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.0 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/7
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息
Why Is It Moving为何波动
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
MEDP daily MACD crossed downMEDP 日线MACD下穿
Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱
Insider activity内部人员活动: -$251.2M net (0 buyers, 7 sellers)-$251.2M 净值（0 买家，7 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Activity动作 | % of portfolio组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giverny Capital | C | Holding持有 | 4.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal History信号历史
TURN SIGNALED
BOTTOMING
Jul 13, 2026
MEDP daily MACD crossed downMEDP 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $530.19.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$530.19。
Jul 6, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
MEDP took relative-strength leadershipMEDP 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $557.60.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$557.60。
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UPTREND接近高点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 24, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 24, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jun 24, 2026
MEDP reclaimed its 200-day averageMEDP 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $512.79.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$512.79。
Jun 24, 2026
MEDP RSI reached overboughtMEDP RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $512.79.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$512.79。
Jun 23, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 23, 2026
MEDP StochRSI turned up from oversoldMEDP StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $473.48.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$473.48。
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Factor Profile因子特征
Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.07
Value价值
-0.9
Quality质量
+1.9
Investment资本投入
+0.9
Shareholder payout股东回报
+0.5
Low volatility低波动
-2.0
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.1
Earnings quality盈利质量
+1.4
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.8
Company Profile公司档案
Medpace Holdings, Inc. is a global clinical research organization (CRO) based in Cincinnati, Ohio, employing approximately 6,000 people.MedpaceHoldings,Inc.是一家全球性临床研究组织（CRO），总部位于俄亥俄州辛辛那提，员工约6000人。
Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
- Receivables stretch
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Nightly signals, options flow, and factor analysis across all S&P 500 names.每日更新的信号、期权资金流向和因子分析，覆盖所有标普500成分股。