INSP Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. · $50.60 Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤 Terminal终端 ↗

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Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. · Health Care

INSP

$50.60
Mixed profile混合特征 Small cap小盘 $1B
Engine stance引擎立场2026-07-20
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily moment已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
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Key Statistics关键统计

Price价格
$50.60
64.9% below 52-week high低于52周高点 64.9%
Market Cap市值
$1B
Normal volume正常成交量
P/E Ratio市盈率
9.9x
28.9x sector median
Beta贝塔
0.98
Moves about 1.0x the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.0 倍
RSI (14)RSI（14）
61
Elevated偏高
Next Earnings下次财报
2026-08-03 (15d)
Volatility Rank波动率分位
28th pctile
hist. vol. percentile历史波动率分位数
Short Interest空头兴趣
16.4% of float

Performance价格表现

Period周期 INSP S&P 500vs Index对比指数
1 Week近1周 -2.2% -1.5% In line with the index与指数基本持平
1 Month近1月 +23.1% +0.6% Beat the index by 22.5 points跑赢指数 22.5 个百分点
3 Months近3月 -12.1% +4.7% Lagged the index by 16.8 points落后指数 16.8 个百分点
6 Months近6月 -45.1% +7.8% Lagged the index by 52.9 points落后指数 52.9 个百分点
Year to date年初至今 -45.2% +9.1% Lagged the index by 54.3 points落后指数 54.3 个百分点
1 Year近1年 -60.5% +19.4% Lagged the index by 79.9 points落后指数 79.9 个百分点
3 Years近3年 -84.3% +69.4% Lagged the index by 153.7 points落后指数 153.7 个百分点

Technicals技术面

RSI (14)RSI（14） 61 Elevated偏高
vs 50-day相对50日均线 +14.0% vs 50-day avg
vs 200-day相对200日均线 -27.7% vs 200-day avg
Volatility rank波动率分位 28th percentile 分位
Engine reference levels — not advice引擎参考水平 — 非投资建议
Buy zone买入区间
$48.89
Don't chase above不追高于
$50.60
Stop止损
$41.12
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤

Earnings财务业绩

15
days until next report天后公布财报
2026-08-03

Estimates being cut预期下调

Post-earnings drift: -20.6% (20d)财报后漂移：-20.6%（20日）

Earnings call transcripts — coming soon财报电话会议记录 — 即将上线

Valuation估值

Multiple指标 INSP Sector median行业中位 Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） 9.94x 28.92
96%
P/B市净率 1.85x 3.52
79%
P/S市销率 1.59x 3.02
73%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 10.06% 2.72
97%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 5.43% 3.94
68%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 12.10% 1.89
99%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 20.66x 18.21
41%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 18.43x 22.42
63%
Analyst price targets — coming soon分析师目标价 — 即将上线

Financials财务数据

Revenue营业收入
$115.4M
2020
$233.4M
2021
$407.9M
2022
$624.8M
2023
$802.8M
2024
$912.0M
2025
5yr CAGR5年复合增速: 51.2%
Earnings Per Share每股收益
$-2.19
2020
$-1.54
2021
$-1.60
2022
$-0.72
2023
$1.75
2024
$4.89
2025
Free Cash Flow自由现金流
-$55.5M
2020
-$24.8M
2021
$2.5M
2022
$1.0M
2023
$91.1M
2024
$78.5M
2025
Margins利润率
Gross margin毛利率
85.4%
Operating margin营业利润率
5.6%
Net margin净利率
15.9%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
12.8%
18.6%Return on Equity股本回报率
16.0%Return on Assets资产回报率
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-1.61
Current ratio流动比率6.08
Capital Allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$175.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$130.3M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-3.9%
Piotroski皮奥特罗斯基 6/8 Altman Z阿尔特曼Z: safe (8.5) Watch关注

Snapshot Gauges综合指标

Valuation vs Sector估值相对行业
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜
Cheaper than 71% of its sector on blended multiples综合估值倍数低于行业内 71% 的公司
Beta市场敏感度
0.98×
0.21×3×
Moves about 1.0× the market波动幅度约为市场的 1.0 倍
Financial Health财务健康
6/8
Altman阿尔特曼: safe
Adequate financial health财务健康状况一般
Dividend分红
—
Does not pay a dividend不派发股息

Why Is It Moving为何波动

Macro宏观 Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓 Short interest changed +30.8%空头仓位变动 +30.8%
Technical技术面 NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中

Ownership & Smart Money持仓与聪明钱

Insider activity内部人员活动: -$0.4M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$0.4M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
Fund基金 Grade评级 Activity动作 % of portfolio组合占比 As of截至
RA Capital Management D Adding加仓 0.2% 2026-03-31

Signal History信号历史

BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~20 day(s) ago @ 41.12) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 20 天前形成 @ 41.12）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
TOP WATCH NEARING A HIGH
Jul 13, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 9, 2026
INSP RSI reached overboughtINSP RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $51.52.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$51.52。
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 29, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 26, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入

Showing last 15 of显示最近15条，共 260 signals条信号

Factor Profile因子特征

Composite factor score综合因子得分: 0.30
Value价值
+0.5
Profitability盈利能力
+3.0
Quality质量
-1.1
Investment资本投入
-0.2
Shareholder payout股东回报
+2.1
Low volatility低波动
-2.4
Low market beta低市场敏感度
-0.2
Earnings quality盈利质量
-1.4
Short interest空头兴趣
-0.9

Company Profile公司档案

Watch items — what could change the thesis关注项 — 可能改变论点的因素
  • Receivables stretch
  • Inventory build
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