Automobiles汽车 (515250.SS)
DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Entry入场 ▼ -43 solidsolid?How well-timed & low-risk THIS entry is — near the cycle high, a fresh momentum turn, and with-trend. Measured: entries near the pivot drew ~30% smaller drawdowns than chasers far above it — risk control, NOT a return forecast.衡量当前入场的时机与风险——贴近周期高点、动量新近转向、且顺势。实测：贴近枢轴的入场，其回撤比远离枢轴的追高者约小 30%——这是风险控制，并非收益预测。
AVOID回避
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
⏱ DOWNTREND signal triggered 4 trading days ago (~2026-07-13), switching from UNCONFIRMED TURN. Signal strength: strong (score -80/100).⏱ 下跌趋势信号于 4 个交易日前触发（约 2026-07-13），自未确认转向切换而来。 信号强度：强（评分 -80/100）。
📅 Daily cycle: day 24 of a typical 23–44 trading days日线周期：第 24 天，典型周期为 23–44 个交易日 — inside the typical low-timing window — a dip is more likely from here, though the trend can keep running处于典型的低点时间窗口内——从此处回调概率更高，但趋势仍可能延续
🗓 Weekly (investor) cycle: week 15 of a typical 13–25 weeks周线（投资者）周期：第 15 周，典型周期为 13–25 周 — late — the bigger cycle is getting old晚期——更大的周期已趋于老化
The last cycle peaked mid-way — a neutral, balanced structure.上一周期在中段见顶——结构中性、均衡。
full reasoning完整推理
Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases).失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）。 Next:下一步： Stand aside until a new daily cycle low forms and confirms.观望，直至新的日线周期低点形成并确认。