Cycle & timing detail周期与时机详情
Momentum across timeframes跨周期动量
📊 Fundamentals, analyst & positioning📊 基本面、分析师与持仓
Relative strength & mean-reversion相对强度与均值回归 · sector-neutral residual板块中性残差
This name's return with its MARKET and SECTOR beta removed — sector-neutral residual relative strength (12-1 month); alpha z ranks it vs the whole A-share cross-section. Deep-history corrected: A-share momentum is NOT a validated edge (35y test) — A-shares MEAN-REVERT, so do not read high alpha as a buy. The actionable read is the entry tag: extended (just spiked) = reversal RISK / fade; pullback (recent dip) = the constructive MEAN-REVERSION entry — the validated effect. The alpha is relative-strength context, not a buy signal.本股票剔除其市场与板块贝塔后的收益 — 板块中性残差相对强度（12-1 个月）；alpha z 为相对全 A 股横截面的排名。经深度历史校正：A股动量并非有效优势（35年检验）—— A股均值回归，因此切勿把高 alpha 当作买入。可操作的解读是入场标记：extended（刚急涨）＝反转风险/做空；pullback（近期回调）＝有效的均值回归入场。alpha 为相对强度背景，而非买入信号。
Fundamentals基本面 · context, not a signal背景，而非信号?Descriptive financial health, valuation, and dividends — a backdrop to read ALONGSIDE the validated reversal / low-vol signals, NOT a buy ranking. On ~35 years of A-share data, value and quality are NOT validated cross-sectional edges (cheap names are often value traps; junk has beaten quality), so do not read "cheap vs sector" or "high Piotroski" as a signal. Piotroski / Altman are standard health scores shown for context; Altman is approximate on A-share accounting. Fundamentals refresh on a slower cadence than price.描述性的财务健康、估值与分红 —— 作为与已验证的反转／低波信号并读的背景，而非买入排序。在约35年的A股数据上，价值与质量并非有效的横截面优势（便宜的个股常是价值陷阱；劣质股曾跑赢优质股），因此切勿把“相对板块便宜”或“高 Piotroski”当作信号。Piotroski／Altman 为标准健康评分，仅作背景；Altman 在 A 股会计下为近似值。基本面的更新频率慢于价格。
Valuation band估值分位 · own 5-year range自身5年区间?Where today's multiple sits inside the stock's OWN trailing-5-year range (市盈率/市净率分位) — how A-share desks read valuation. Lower percentile = cheaper than its own norm. Context only: on ~35y of A-share data cheapness is NOT a validated edge (cheap is often a value trap), so a low percentile is not a buy.当前估值倍数处于该股自身近5年区间中的位置（市盈率／市净率分位）—— A股机构惯用的估值读法。分位越低＝相对自身越便宜。仅作背景：在约35年A股数据上，便宜并非有效优势（常是价值陷阱），低分位不等于买入。
👔 Analyst & estimates分析师与预期 · sell-side consensus卖方一致预期?Eastmoney sell-side aggregate: 6-month institutional rating mix (买入/增持/中性/减持/卖出), coverage breadth, and forward EPS forecasts; forward P/E uses the live price. Sell-side opinion shown as coverage context, NOT an endorsement — high coverage and a bullish skew are not a validated edge.东方财富卖方汇总：近6个月机构评级分布（买入／增持／中性／减持／卖出）、覆盖广度，以及预测每股收益；前瞻市盈率用实时价格计算。卖方观点仅作覆盖背景，并非推荐——高覆盖与看多倾向并非有效优势。
📅 Earnings & disclosure财报披露
Margin positioning融资融券仓位 · leveraged financing杠杆资金?Per-name margin financing balance (融资余额) and its ~20-trading-day change — the A-share leverage/crowding plane (the per-stock cut of the market-wide margin meter). A-share leverage is retail-driven, so a fast build-up is a froth/crowding tell and an unwind is de-risking. Context only — leverage is not a validated timing signal, and margin-eligibility is not universal.个股融资余额及其约20个交易日的变化 —— A股杠杆／拥挤度平面（全市场两融表的个股切片）。A股杠杆由散户驱动，快速攀升是过热／拥挤信号，回落则是去杠杆。仅作背景 —— 杠杆并非有效择时信号，且并非所有个股都可两融。
How much to trust the state — measured 2008→2026这个状态有多可信 — 实测 2008→2026?A-shares drift up over a month from every state (the market's long upward bias); the spread between
states is small, and the "scary" states measured slightly better forward returns — markets mean-revert
and full confirmation costs part of the bounce. Use the state for structure (cycle position,
confirmation checklist, invalidation level) and size positions instead of seeking certainty.
Typical dip = median worst drop over the next month; bad-case dip = the worst 1-in-10
month (10th percentile) — the drawdown lens matters more than average return for risk states.从任何状态出发，A 股在一个月内都倾向于上涨（市场长期向上的偏向）；各状态之间的差距很小，而那些
"吓人"的状态实测前瞻收益反而略好 — 市场会均值回归，等到完全确认时已错过部分反弹。请把状态用于
结构判断（周期位置、确认清单、失效价位）并据此控制仓位，而非追求确定性。
典型回撤 = 未来一个月最大跌幅的中位数；最坏回撤 = 十分之一的最差月份（第10百分位）—
对于风险状态，回撤视角比平均收益更重要。
How to read this page: the verdict band is the one call; the timing line, fingerprint axes and evidence lanes are the supporting reads behind it; the collapsed sections hold the full detail. Everything here is display-only research context, never personalized investment advice — sizing is a risk-budget guide, not a recommendation.如何阅读本页：结论条是唯一的判断；时机行、画像轴与依据栏是其背后的支撑读数；折叠区块收纳完整明细。本页所有内容仅为研究性背景展示，并非个性化投资建议——仓位为风险预算参考，而非推荐。