Semiconductors半导体 (512760.SS)
BOTTOMING筑底中
Entry入场 ▲ +30 lightlight?How well-timed & low-risk THIS entry is — near the cycle low, a fresh momentum turn, and with-trend. Measured: entries near the pivot drew ~30% smaller drawdowns than chasers far above it — risk control, NOT a return forecast.衡量当前入场的时机与风险——贴近周期低点、动量新近转向、且顺势。实测：贴近枢轴的入场，其回撤比远离枢轴的追高者约小 30%——这是风险控制，并非收益预测。
BOTTOMING · UNCONFIRMED — WAITBOTTOMING · UNCONFIRMED — WAIT
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the 3-day/weekly momentum is rolling over — momentum is fading before the setup has completed. Wait for price to reclaim the 10-day average with momentum stabilising before sizing in.筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且3 日/周线动量已开始掉头向下——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
⏱ BOTTOMING signal triggered 5 trading days ago (~2026-07-10), switching from NEARING A HIGH. Signal strength: moderate (score +45/100).⏱ 筑底中信号于 5 个交易日前触发（约 2026-07-10），自接近高点切换而来。 信号强度：中等（评分 +45/100）。
📅 Daily cycle: day 28 of a typical 23–44 trading days日线周期：第 28 天，典型周期为 23–44 个交易日 — inside the typical low-timing window — a dip is more likely from here, though the trend can keep running处于典型的低点时间窗口内——从此处回调概率更高，但趋势仍可能延续
🗓 Weekly (investor) cycle: week 15 of a typical 13–25 weeks周线（投资者）周期：第 15 周，典型周期为 13–25 周 — late — the bigger cycle is getting old晚期——更大的周期已趋于老化
The last cycle peaked in its SECOND half ('right-translated') — strong cycles top late, a healthy-uptrend sign.上一周期在后半段见顶（“右移”）——强周期见顶偏晚，属于健康上涨趋势的信号。
full reasoning完整推理
Buyers rejected the 2026-06-12 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all.买方拒绝了 2026-06-12 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部。 Next:下一步： Confirmation = a close above the 10-day average with the average turning up.确认 = 收盘站上 10 日均线且均线开始向上。