Baijiu & Liquor白酒 (512690.SS)

UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 Entry入场 · +6 minimalminimal?How well-timed & low-risk THIS entry is — near the cycle low, a fresh momentum turn, and with-trend. Measured: entries near the pivot drew ~30% smaller drawdowns than chasers far above it — risk control, NOT a return forecast.衡量当前入场的时机与风险——贴近周期低点、动量新近转向、且顺势。实测:贴近枢轴的入场,其回撤比远离枢轴的追高者约小 30%——这是风险控制,并非收益预测。
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 0.38.日线低点正在形成,但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位;止损设于 0.38 下方。

⏱ UNCONFIRMED TURN signal triggered 3 trading days ago (~2026-07-14), switching from DOWNTREND. Signal strength: mild (score -35/100).⏱ 未确认转向信号于 3 个交易日前触发(约 2026-07-14),自下跌趋势切换而来。 信号强度:温和(评分 -35/100)。

📅 Daily cycle: day 79 of a typical 23–44 trading days日线周期:第 79 天,典型周期为 23–44 个交易日overdue — past the typical window, so a low could form any day逾期——已超过典型窗口,低点随时可能形成
🗓 Weekly (investor) cycle: week 56 of a typical 13–25 weeks周线(投资者)周期:第 56 周,典型周期为 13–25 周overdue — the bigger cycle is stretched, expect more volatility逾期——更大的周期已被拉伸,预计波动加剧
The last cycle peaked in its FIRST half ('left-translated') — weak cycles top early, so this hints the bigger trend is tiring.上一周期在前半段见顶(“左移”)——弱周期见顶偏早,这暗示更大的趋势正在走弱。
full reasoning完整推理

A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; 3-day crossed up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. The daily cycle has also failed (broke its own start low), which tilts the odds toward failure here. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell.正在形成日线筑底形态(摆动低点已现、动量转向上行)——但更高周期尚未确认:大局仍偏空(周线动量开始上翘;3 日线向上交叉;投资者周期失败(跌破起始低点);投资者周期已逾期;上一周期左移(见顶偏早))。这是「未确认转向」,并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格,因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹,也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种,故应将其视为风险/仓位信号,而非方向判断。实测:周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点,周线转向后升至约 68%。日线周期同样已经失败(跌破其自身起始低点),此处概率更偏向失败。 上一周期为左移结构(见顶偏早)——属于看空的结构性信号。 Next:下一步: Nimble traders only — small size, defined stop below 0.38. Not an investment buy yet. What would upgrade it: weekly momentum turning up, a reclaim of the investor-cycle low, or the first daily cycle right-translating — add on confirmation, not ahead of it.仅限灵活交易者——小仓位、止损设于 0.38 下方。暂非投资性买入。何种情形会升级:周线动量转为向上、收复投资者周期低点、或首个日线周期呈右移结构——在确认之后加仓,而非提前。

Momentum across timeframes跨周期动量

Chart图表

Key constituents — each on its own cycle主要成分股 — 各自的周期 ?Representative large-caps in this sector (curated; not the ETF's full holdings). Each gets the same cycle/ladder treatment. Click a name for the full single-stock analysis.本板块中具代表性的大盘股(精选,并非该 ETF 的完整持仓)。每只都享有相同的周期/阶梯分析。点击名称查看完整个股分析。

600519.SS UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK today今日 ▲ +22 daily cycle day日线周期第 15/~44
000858.SZ UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK 3d ago3天前 · +7 daily cycle day日线周期第 79/~44
000568.SZ UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK 3d ago3天前 · +6 daily cycle day日线周期第 76/~44
600809.SS UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK 2d ago2天前 ▲ +19 daily cycle day日线周期第 17/~44
002304.SZ UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK 2d ago2天前 · +7 daily cycle day日线周期第 79/~44
000799.SZ UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK 10d ago10天前 · +12 daily cycle day日线周期第 25/~44